Do I ship it?

GamesSandboxSandbox + 4 Player Local

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a 4 Player Local Sandbox?

Sandbox + 4 Player Local

Only 12 developers shipped a 4 Player Local Sandbox in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Wobbly Life, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 26 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×3.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $24M, ×39436 the market median. Revenue is up 370% on the market; 26 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 370% on the market, 26 announced, ×4.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + 4 Player Local
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $11k → $1.2k → $299 → $18k
Outcomes for Sandbox + 4 Player Local: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Median $2.1k (exactly $2,096)
Top 25% $420k (exactly $419,790)
Top 5% $25M (exactly $24,765,590)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 45
Announced 26
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 370% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
4 Player Local
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox, 4 Player Local
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 96% positive over 35,079 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $2.1k, 1 in 4 over $410k, 1 in 20 over $24M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 26 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Wobbly Life $24.99 33,034 97% 991k $25M (exactly $24,765,590) RubberBandGames
Amazing Frog? · EA older $19.99 11,169 94% 335k $6.7M (exactly $6,698,049) Fayju
DIRT 5 older $59.99 3,530 59% 106k $6.4M (exactly $6,352,941) Codemasters
Zeepkist · EA older $19.99 1,555 97% 47k $933k (exactly $932,533) Steelpan Interactive
Totally Reliable Delivery Service older $14.99 1,695 76% 51k $762k (exactly $762,242) We're Five Games
Better Mart Simulator $14.99 1,238 89% 37k $557k (exactly $556,729) Exanticx Studio
Amazing Frog? 2 · EA older $19.99 726 77% 22k $435k (exactly $435,382) Fayju
Vacation Cafe Simulator $19.99 700 88% 21k $420k (exactly $419,790) Alice Games
Murder Miners older $2.99 3,965 87% 119k $356k (exactly $355,660) JForce Games
Small World older $9.99 931 71% 28k $279k (exactly $279,021) Days of Wonder
Big Dig Energy $9.99 59 69% 1.8k $18k (exactly $17,682) NuggetSmash
Crafty Racer · EA $14.99 11 100% 330 $4.9k (exactly $4,947) Peterclark
Market Empire Simulator $4.99 14 78% 420 $2.1k (exactly $2,096) Coffeeshake Games
The Ultimate Collector · EA $8.99 7 42% 210 $1.9k (exactly $1,888) StariStudios
Developer Daily $9.99 6 83% 180 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) Mehan Games
RAGDOLL UNIVERSE · EA $4.99 8 87% 240 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) MageC
Line of Fire - Pirate Waltz · EA $4.99 2 50% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Ige Olwen

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.