Do I ship it?

GamesReal Time TacticsReal Time Tactics + 4 Player Local

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a 4 Player Local Real Time Tactics?

Real Time Tactics + 4 Player Local

Only 15 developers shipped a 4 Player Local Real Time Tactics in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Carnival Heroes - Super party minigames, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 23 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $150 in the last 2 years and $150 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 10 developers shipped in the last year and 23 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 23 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Real Time Tactics + 4 Player Local
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $120 → $600 → $419 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Real Time Tactics + 4 Player Local: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $150 (exactly $150)
Top 25% $897 (exactly $897)
Top 5% $4.7k (exactly $4,668)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 41
Announced 23
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Real Time Tactics
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
4 Player Local
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Real Time Tactics, 4 Player Local; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Co-op, Local Co-Op, Strategy
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $7.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Cartoony, Colorful, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $7.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 9 games average 98% positive over 76 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $150, 1 in 4 over $890, 1 in 20 over $4.6k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 23 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Real Time Tactics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DragonsStrong odds17 devs · median $6.6k · 19 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair12 devs · median $1.8k · 14 announced
  3. + HackingFair11 devs · median $987 · 11 announced
  4. + World War IIPoor odds24 devs · median $67k · 35 announced
  5. + Cold WarPoor odds9 devs · median $19k · 16 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds88 devs · median $19k · 154 announced
  7. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds19 devs · median $16k · 31 announced
  8. + Real-TimePoor odds16 devs · median $16k · 26 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds16 devs · median $13k · 32 announced
  10. + Vehicular CombatPoor odds20 devs · median $9.6k · 50 announced
  11. + God GamePoor odds19 devs · median $7.8k · 32 announced
  12. + Open WorldPoor odds29 devs · median $7.2k · 111 announced

All 176 pairs on the Real Time Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
College Bowl older $24.99 263 84% 7.9k $197k (exactly $197,171) Super Pixel Games
Tennis Elbow Manager 2 older $29.99 202 91% 6.1k $182k (exactly $181,739) Mana Games
Hidden in Plain Sight older $5.99 922 99% 28k $166k (exactly $165,683) Adam Spragg
Super Arcade Football older $12.99 164 68% 4.9k $64k (exactly $63,911) OutOfTheBit Ltd
Let's Play! Oink Games older $24.99 66 78% 2.0k $49k (exactly $49,480) Oink Games Inc.
Torchance 6 older $19.99 23 69% 690 $14k (exactly $13,793) Big Blaze Games
King Pins older $2.99 78 85% 2.3k $7.0k (exactly $6,997) Sokpop Collective, Sokpop Collective
SHARK! SHARK! older $14.99 14 64% 420 $6.3k (exactly $6,296) BBG Entertainment GmbH
There Will Be Ink older $6.99 30 93% 900 $6.3k (exactly $6,291) Summit Fever
Carnival Heroes - Super party minigames $3.99 39 97% 1.2k $4.7k (exactly $4,668) LAN - GAMES LTD
Crypt Crawler $7.99 15 100% 450 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) Wild Domain
Boiiing Boiiing $6.99 5 100% 150 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) SLMB's Games
Premier Servi $2.99 10 100% 300 $897 (exactly $897) Florent Baris, Gaspard Thirion, Mickaël… (Florent Baris, Gaspard Thirion, Mickaël Scherlen)
POGO Stadium · EA $12.99 2 100% 60 $779 (exactly $779) Kyoto Entertainment Works Inc.
Spikeball Smash $19.99 1 100% 30 $600 (exactly $600) VRMonkey
Clash of Builders $6.99 2 100% 60 $419 (exactly $419) DriftWhale Studio
Cibus Odyssey $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) LUDENS Co.,Ltd.
War War $3.99 1 100% 30 $120 (exactly $120) Verto Studio LLC
Tiny Pods Rescue - 2D Board Game Edition $3.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Chris Cornu, Alex Cornu

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.