Do I ship it?

GamesPvPPvP + 4 Player Local

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvP 4 Player Local game?

PvP + 4 Player Local

Of 312 developers who shipped a PvP 4 Player Local game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 525 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×0.8 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $85k, ×57 the market median. Revenue is up 35% on the market; 525 games are announced against 178 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 35% on the market, 525 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvP + 4 Player Local
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 312
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $479 → $1.2k → $1.3k → $2.1k → $1.2k → $1.8k → $839 (still earning) → $269 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvP + 4 Player Local: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 312
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,197)
Top 25% $5.4k (exactly $5,395)
Top 5% $85k (exactly $85,472)
Developers, 2 yr 312
Released games 1,110
Announced 525
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 35% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvP
effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
4 Player Local
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
PvP, 4 Player Local; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Local Multiplayer, Action, Arcade
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Colorful, 3D, Funny
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 25,788 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $5.3k, 1 in 20 over $85k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 9 in 10 of the 186 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 525 games are announced against 178 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BaseballFair6 devs · median $7.6k · 9 announced
  2. + TransportationFair10 devs · median $5.7k · 11 announced
  3. + BasketballFair25 devs · median $2.6k · 28 announced
  4. + Football (American)Fair17 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  5. + BikesFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  6. + GolfFair29 devs · median $1.4k · 34 announced
  7. + World War IFair12 devs · median $1.3k · 14 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair36 devs · median $1.2k · 48 announced
  9. + BilliardsFair18 devs · median $1.1k · 12 announced
  10. + TennisLong shot17 devs · median $899 · 15 announced
  11. + TypingLong shot28 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  12. + SpellingLong shot14 devs · median $719 · 17 announced

All 247 pairs on the PvP page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
NBA 2K25 older $69.99 30,969 60% 929k $65M (exactly $65,025,609) Visual Concepts
Party Animals older $19.99 56,043 81% 1.7M $34M (exactly $33,608,987) Recreate Games
Gang Beasts older $19.99 54,880 85% 1.6M $33M (exactly $32,911,536) Boneloaf, Rocket Science
Sonic Racing: CrossWorlds $69.99 11,479 93% 344k $24M (exactly $24,102,456) Sonic Team
Ultimate Chicken Horse older $14.99 41,060 95% 1.2M $18M (exactly $18,464,682) Clever Endeavour Games
Stick Fight: The Game older $4.99 99,952 93% 3.0M $15M (exactly $14,962,814) Landfall West
Spelunky 2 older $19.99 19,736 93% 592k $12M (exactly $11,835,679) Mossmouth, BlitWorks
Captain Tsubasa: Rise of New Champions older $59.99 5,072 73% 152k $9.1M (exactly $9,128,078) TAMSOFT CORPORATION
Overcooked older $16.99 13,528 89% 406k $6.9M (exactly $6,895,222) Ghost Town Games Ltd.
Overcooked! All You Can Eat older $39.99 5,744 73% 172k $6.9M (exactly $6,891,077) Team17 Digital, Ghost Town Games
Rivals of Aether II $29.99 6,980 78% 209k $6.3M (exactly $6,279,906) Aether Studios
Tennis Elbow 4 $29.99 1,077 96% 32k $969k (exactly $968,977) Mana Games
Tales of Graces f Remastered $39.99 773 87% 23k $927k (exactly $927,368) TOSE CO., LTD.
Super Woden: Rally Edge $12.99 1,552 96% 47k $605k (exactly $604,814) ViJuDa
A Few Quick Matches $6.99 2,475 85% 74k $519k (exactly $519,008) Studio Bidou
Victory Heat Rally $19.99 599 88% 18k $359k (exactly $359,220) Skydevilpalm
DOKAPON! Sword of Fury $24.99 354 85% 11k $265k (exactly $265,394) Sting
SUPER BOMBERMAN COLLECTION $19.99 294 87% 8.8k $176k (exactly $176,312) RED ART GAMES
Phantom Breaker: Battle Grounds Ultimate $24.99 205 84% 6.2k $154k (exactly $153,688) Rocket Panda Games Japan

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.