Do I ship it?

GamesSandboxSandbox + 3D Platformer

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a 3D Platformer Sandbox?

Sandbox + 3D Platformer

Of 122 developers who shipped a 3D Platformer Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 208 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 70 developers shipped in the last year and 208 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 30% on the market, 208 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + 3D Platformer
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 122
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $327 → $599 → $896 → $540 → $748 → $449 → $479 (still earning) → $30 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sandbox + 3D Platformer: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 122
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $2.2k (exactly $2,158)
Top 5% $379k (exactly $378,521)
Developers, 2 yr 122
Released games 372
Announced 208
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 30% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
3D Platformer
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox, 3D Platformer; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Funny, Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 69% positive over 27,671 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $450, 1 in 4 over $2.1k, 1 in 20 over $370k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 9 in 10 of the 79 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 208 games are announced against 70 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Human Fall Flat older $19.99 174,835 94% 5.2M $105M (exactly $104,848,549) No Brakes Games
Hello Neighbor older $29.99 26,329 87% 790k $24M (exactly $23,688,201) Dynamic Pixels
Little Kitty, Big City older $24.99 10,423 96% 313k $7.8M (exactly $7,814,123) Double Dagger Studio
Cultivation Tales older $19.99 12,560 38% 377k $7.5M (exactly $7,532,232) Ac Games
Sunset Overdrive older $19.99 12,082 90% 362k $7.2M (exactly $7,245,575) Insomniac Games, Blind Squirrel Games
Starsand Island $39.99 5,898 76% 177k $7.1M (exactly $7,075,831) Seed Sparkle Lab
The Front $19.99 9,555 66% 287k $5.7M (exactly $5,730,134) Samar Studio
Biped older $14.99 9,025 85% 271k $4.1M (exactly $4,058,542) NEXT Studios
Saints Row®: The Third™ Remastered older $29.99 3,968 73% 119k $3.6M (exactly $3,570,010) Deep Silver Volition, Sperasoft
Bang-On Balls: Chronicles older $24.99 4,334 96% 130k $3.2M (exactly $3,249,200) Exit Plan Games
s&box $9.99 5,118 46% 154k $1.5M (exactly $1,533,865) Facepunch Studios
IfSunSets · EA $19.99 2,284 74% 69k $1.4M (exactly $1,369,715) POLYMORPH
Animal Company · EA $19.99 749 86% 22k $449k (exactly $449,175) Wooster Games
Mr. Sleepy Man $19.99 636 98% 19k $381k (exactly $381,409) Devin Santi
A Webbing Journey · EA $9.99 1,263 98% 38k $379k (exactly $378,521) Fire Totem Games
沙雕之路 $10.00 1,039 96% 31k $312k (exactly $311,700) 馆叔
Stickman Strikes: Conquer Fantasy World $11.99 642 78% 19k $231k (exactly $230,927) LGaoGame
Nuclear Epoch $14.99 487 78% 15k $219k (exactly $219,004) Cat Play Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.