Do I ship it?

GamesPvPPvP + 3D Platformer

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvP 3D Platformer?

PvP + 3D Platformer

Of 188 developers who shipped a PvP 3D Platformer in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 366 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $270 in the last 2 years and $360 over 4, against a market of $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build. 105 developers shipped in the last year and 366 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 366 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvP + 3D Platformer
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 188
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $1.5k → $959 → $1.2k → $539 → $270 → $240 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvP + 3D Platformer: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 188
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $269 (exactly $269)
Top 25% $2.7k (exactly $2,695)
Top 5% $91k (exactly $91,289)
Developers, 2 yr 188
Released games 655
Announced 366
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 32%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvP
effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
3D Platformer
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
PvP, 3D Platformer; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Character Customization, Online Co-Op
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Funny, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 34,923 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $270, 1 in 4 over $2.6k, 1 in 20 over $91k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 143 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 366 games are announced against 105 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BaseballFair6 devs · median $7.6k · 9 announced
  2. + TransportationFair10 devs · median $5.7k · 11 announced
  3. + BasketballFair25 devs · median $2.6k · 28 announced
  4. + Football (American)Fair17 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  5. + BikesFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  6. + GolfFair29 devs · median $1.4k · 34 announced
  7. + World War IFair12 devs · median $1.3k · 14 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair36 devs · median $1.2k · 48 announced
  9. + BilliardsFair18 devs · median $1.1k · 12 announced
  10. + TennisLong shot17 devs · median $899 · 15 announced
  11. + TypingLong shot28 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  12. + SpellingLong shot14 devs · median $719 · 17 announced

All 247 pairs on the PvP page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Gorilla Tag older $19.99 52,637 93% 1.6M $32M (exactly $31,566,409) Another Axiom Inc.
Cultivation Tales older $19.99 12,560 38% 377k $7.5M (exactly $7,532,232) Ac Games
ATLYSS · EA $9.99 19,244 96% 577k $5.8M (exactly $5,767,427) Kiseff
Jujutsu Kaisen Cursed Clash older $59.99 3,051 60% 92k $5.5M (exactly $5,490,885) Byking Inc.
Hot Lava older $19.99 5,335 92% 160k $3.2M (exactly $3,199,399) Klei Entertainment
ScooterFlow $19.99 3,975 95% 119k $2.4M (exactly $2,383,808) UncannyKiwi Limited
FATAL FURY: City of the Wolves $19.99 3,135 82% 94k $1.9M (exactly $1,880,059) SNK CORPORATION
s&box $9.99 5,118 46% 154k $1.5M (exactly $1,533,865) Facepunch Studios
Fight Angel Special Edition older $19.99 1,776 75% 53k $1.1M (exactly $1,065,067) Red Fox
Just Go older $9.99 3,227 92% 97k $967k (exactly $967,132) Studio Amateur
Last Train Outta' Wormtown $11.99 1,453 96% 44k $523k (exactly $522,644) Get(Color) Games
Animal Company · EA $19.99 749 86% 22k $449k (exactly $449,175) Wooster Games
HOTEL BARCELONA $29.99 269 71% 8.1k $242k (exactly $242,019) White Owls Inc.
Feather Party $8.99 548 87% 16k $148k (exactly $147,796) threeW
Rocket Boots Mania $14.99 229 99% 6.9k $103k (exactly $102,981) Luma Play
我的钓鱼世界 · EA $14.99 203 60% 6.1k $91k (exactly $91,289) 华幸

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.