Do I ship it?

GamesBattle RoyaleBattle Royale + 3D Fighter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a 3D Fighter Battle Royale?

Battle Royale + 3D Fighter

Only 17 developers shipped a 3D Fighter Battle Royale in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Vienkiemis, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 35 more are announced, ×5.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 10 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $120 in the last 2 years and $210 over 4, against a market of $1.3k for a 10 / 10 build. 7 developers shipped in the last year and 35 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 35 announced, ×5.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Battle Royale + 3D Fighter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $210 → $1.5k → $0 → $300 → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Battle Royale + 3D Fighter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $59 (exactly $59)
Median $120 (exactly $120)
Top 25% $748 (exactly $748)
Top 5% $17k (exactly $17,147)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 98
Announced 35
Effort 10 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 30% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 34%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Battle Royale
effort 10 / 10 · low · 100-player servers and constant live ops
3D Fighter
effort 7 / 10 · low · 3D hit volumes plus the fighting-game tuning load

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
10 / 10 · studio only
Systems
Battle Royale, 3D Fighter; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, PvP, Character Customization
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Cute, Family Friendly
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 82 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $59, median $120, 1 in 4 over $740, 1 in 20 over $17k.

3 in 10 developers made under $59. 9 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 35 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Battle Royale with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Immersive SimFair13 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  2. + MysteryLong shot12 devs · median $359 · 9 announced
  3. + LootPoor odds9 devs · median $4.3k · 23 announced
  4. + SportsPoor odds18 devs · median $3.8k · 26 announced
  5. + Hero ShooterPoor odds9 devs · median $3.6k · 29 announced
  6. + PuzzlePoor odds14 devs · median $3.2k · 21 announced
  7. + Psychological HorrorPoor odds12 devs · median $3.2k · 18 announced
  8. + Dungeon CrawlerPoor odds14 devs · median $3.2k · 30 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds34 devs · median $1.3k · 89 announced
  10. + SandboxPoor odds7 devs · median $1.2k · 20 announced
  11. + 4 Player LocalPoor odds17 devs · median $898 · 28 announced
  12. + RoguelitePoor odds14 devs · median $748 · 20 announced

All 91 pairs on the Battle Royale page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
GigaBash older $24.99 1,951 94% 59k $1.5M (exactly $1,462,665) Passion Republic Games
TOUHOU SKY ARENA MATSURI CLIMAX older $19.99 200 86% 6.0k $120k (exactly $119,940) AREAZERO
Mad Streets older $14.99 200 85% 6.0k $90k (exactly $89,940) Craftshop Arts Inc.
The Wraith of the Galaxy · EA older $11.99 161 81% 4.8k $58k (exactly $57,912) Whale Rock Games
Vienkiemis · EA $12.99 44 100% 1.3k $17k (exactly $17,147) dssob, SMEIVIS
Tank Royale · EA older $9.99 50 88% 1.5k $15k (exactly $14,985) BSS company
Too Many Weapons older $9.99 32 71% 960 $9.6k (exactly $9,590) Studio HK
Russian Drunken Boxers older $24.99 11 100% 330 $8.2k (exactly $8,247) Laush Dmitriy Segeevich
Nine Nights older $12.99 21 76% 630 $8.2k (exactly $8,184) Li Hui
Go All Out older $9.99 18 61% 540 $5.4k (exactly $5,395) Blue Sunset Games
Holiday Party: Mascot Brawl $13.99 12 100% 360 $5.0k (exactly $5,036) NAMSON Digital
BLOKES on BLOCKS! $9.99 4 100% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) CRAFTS & MEISTER Co., Ltd.
Forest $3.99 10 0% 300 $1.2k (exactly $1,197) Ihor Lema
War Job $4.99 5 80% 150 $748 (exactly $748) Stupid games
OutBreak: The Last Survivor $9.99 2 0% 60 $599 (exactly $599) Briant Entertainment
Neon Knights $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) VHornet Games
Drone Fire $2.99 2 100% 60 $179 (exactly $179) QplusQ
Dungeons Bomb $3.99 1 100% 30 $120 (exactly $120) MARIOZY
100 Men vs 1 Gorilla $3.99 1 0% 30 $120 (exactly $120) Kekdot

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.