Do I ship it?

Games › Battle Royale › Battle Royale + Roguelite

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Roguelite Battle Royale?

Battle Royale + Roguelite

Only 14 developers shipped a Roguelite Battle Royale in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Backpack Jianghu, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 20 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 10 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $750, ×0.6 the market's $1.3k for a 10 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $60. 20 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper, while revenue is up 1125% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 1125% on the market, 20 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Battle Royale + Roguelite
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $748 → $629 → $107k (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Battle Royale + Roguelite: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $748 (exactly $748)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $14,028)
Top 5% $237k (exactly $237,130)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 35
Announced 20
Effort 10 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1125% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 26%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Battle Royale
effort 10 / 10 · low · 100-player servers and constant live ops
Roguelite
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
10 / 10 · studio only
Systems
Battle Royale, Roguelite; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action Roguelike, Arena Shooter
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $13.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Funny
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $13.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 1,354 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $750, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $230k.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. 9 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 20 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Battle Royale with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Immersive SimFair13 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  2. + MysteryLong shot12 devs · median $359 · 9 announced
  3. + LootPoor odds9 devs · median $4.3k · 23 announced
  4. + SportsPoor odds18 devs · median $3.8k · 26 announced
  5. + Hero ShooterPoor odds9 devs · median $3.6k · 29 announced
  6. + PuzzlePoor odds14 devs · median $3.2k · 21 announced
  7. + Psychological HorrorPoor odds12 devs · median $3.2k · 18 announced
  8. + Dungeon CrawlerPoor odds14 devs · median $3.2k · 30 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds34 devs · median $1.3k · 89 announced
  10. + SandboxPoor odds7 devs · median $1.2k · 20 announced
  11. + 4 Player LocalPoor odds17 devs · median $898 · 28 announced
  12. + Combat RacingPoor odds14 devs · median $719 · 32 announced

All 91 pairs on the Battle Royale page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Backpack Jianghu 2026 · $237k Last Man Sitting 2026 · $107k Iron Core: Mech Survivor 2025 · $74k Hitler Hates Anime 2021 · $28k Touhou Brawl 2026 · $14k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Backpack Jianghu $13.99 565 80% 17k $237k (exactly $237,130) 背包工作室
Last Man Sitting $9.99 357 77% 11k $107k (exactly $106,993) DoubleMoose Games
Iron Core: Mech Survivor $6.99 352 73% 11k $74k (exactly $73,814) Soda Game Studio
Hitler Hates Anime older $1.99 463 93% 14k $28k (exactly $27,641) PaulArt
Touhou Brawl $11.99 39 51% 1.2k $14k (exactly $14,028) FIVE DUCK GAMES
Story of White Stone State older $5.99 47 23% 1.4k $8.4k (exactly $8,446) DRILL Games
Just Move:Clean City Messy Battle $15.99 11 45% 330 $5.3k (exactly $5,277) daminggede
Adventurer's Gambit: Dungeons of Fortune $12.99 11 81% 330 $4.3k (exactly $4,287) Astana Games
Just Move Fall Dungeon Endless Abyss $15.99 8 50% 240 $3.8k (exactly $3,838) daminggede
Number One Rich older $5.99 19 36% 570 $3.4k (exactly $3,414) BlackWhite
Toilet Battle $4.99 5 80% 150 $748 (exactly $748) BBK
LAPPY GAMES $6.99 3 66% 90 $629 (exactly $629) WILL Co.,Ltd.
Infinity War Land $1.99 3 0% 90 $179 (exactly $179) 90E GAMES

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.