Do I ship it?

GamesBattle RoyaleBattle Royale + Sports

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sports Battle Royale?

Battle Royale + Sports

Only 18 developers shipped a Sports Battle Royale in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Turnfall, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 26 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 10 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.8k, ×2.8 the market's $1.3k for a 10 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $110k, ×86 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 26 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 26 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Battle Royale + Sports
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.7k → $1.5k → $3.9k → $52k → $4.2k → $59 (still earning) → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Battle Royale + Sports: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $240 (exactly $240)
Median $3.8k (exactly $3,838)
Top 25% $4.5k (exactly $4,498)
Top 5% $115k (exactly $115,171)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 115
Announced 26
Effort 10 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Battle Royale
effort 10 / 10 · low · 100-player servers and constant live ops
Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
10 / 10 · studio only
Systems
Battle Royale, Sports; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Co-op, Combat
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Colorful, Cartoony
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 403 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $3.8k, 1 in 4 over $4.4k, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 9 in 10 of the 26 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 26 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Battle Royale with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Immersive SimFair13 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  2. + MysteryLong shot12 devs · median $359 · 9 announced
  3. + LootPoor odds9 devs · median $4.3k · 23 announced
  4. + Hero ShooterPoor odds9 devs · median $3.6k · 29 announced
  5. + PuzzlePoor odds14 devs · median $3.2k · 21 announced
  6. + Psychological HorrorPoor odds12 devs · median $3.2k · 18 announced
  7. + Dungeon CrawlerPoor odds14 devs · median $3.2k · 30 announced
  8. + Co-opPoor odds34 devs · median $1.3k · 89 announced
  9. + SandboxPoor odds7 devs · median $1.2k · 20 announced
  10. + 4 Player LocalPoor odds17 devs · median $898 · 28 announced
  11. + RoguelitePoor odds14 devs · median $748 · 20 announced
  12. + Combat RacingPoor odds14 devs · median $719 · 32 announced

All 91 pairs on the Battle Royale page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Shipped older $9.99 584 96% 18k $175k (exactly $175,025) Majorariatto
Soccer Online: Ball 3D older $0.99 4,624 89% 139k $137k (exactly $137,333) Unusualsoft
Turnfall $39.99 96 95% 2.9k $115k (exactly $115,171) Koleapin Studio
Hashiriya Drifter-Online Drift Racing Multiplayer (DRIFT/DRAG/RACING) older $1.99 1,337 68% 40k $80k (exactly $79,819) Midnight Games
River City Melee : Battle Royal Special older $19.99 89 57% 2.7k $53k (exactly $53,373) Arc System Works
Dawn of Anarchy $13.99 125 84% 3.8k $52k (exactly $52,462) Quacky Games
SQUID GIRLS 18+ older $6.99 198 60% 5.9k $42k (exactly $41,521) Squid Developer
FALL GIRLS older $6.99 187 49% 5.6k $39k (exactly $39,214) Squid Developer
Furry Arena [18+] older $1.99 599 64% 18k $36k (exactly $35,760) Octo Games
Perfect Partner older $8.99 107 79% 3.2k $29k (exactly $28,858) RD Studio
Dusty Derby · EA $9.99 66 100% 2.0k $20k (exactly $19,780) Geniesoft Inc.
The Great Axe $19.99 13 84% 390 $7.8k (exactly $7,796) Gamesforgames
GOKA Street · EA $4.99 44 86% 1.3k $6.6k (exactly $6,587) Blay Games
run for money Hunter vs. Runner! Which side will you win!? $29.99 5 80% 150 $4.5k (exactly $4,498) INFINITY Co., Ltd.
Chasers Dash & Bash $9.99 15 93% 450 $4.5k (exactly $4,496) Flipstar
Hololive Fantasy Battle $13.00 11 90% 330 $4.3k (exactly $4,290) G-Blossom
Winning Tactics $9.99 14 78% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) Gamesforgames
Summoner's Automata $9.99 14 85% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) Gamesforgames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.