Do I ship it?

GamesSandboxSandbox + 2D Platformer

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a 2D Platformer Sandbox?

Sandbox + 2D Platformer

Of 75 developers who shipped a 2D Platformer Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 116 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360, ×0.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $60. 116 games are announced against 51 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper, while revenue is up 170% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 170% on the market, 116 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + 2D Platformer
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 75
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.0k → $2.2k → $356 → $539 → $299 → $449 → $1.2k (still earning) → $90 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sandbox + 2D Platformer: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 75
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $1.3k (exactly $1,347)
Top 5% $52k (exactly $51,536)
Developers, 2 yr 75
Released games 219
Announced 116
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 170% on the market, supply 115% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
2D Platformer
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox, 2D Platformer; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Exploration, Building
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $10.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $10.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 2,856 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $360, 1 in 4 over $1.3k, 1 in 20 over $51k.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. 9 in 10 of the 33 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 116 games are announced against 51 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Noita older $19.99 81,149 95% 2.4M $49M (exactly $48,665,055) Nolla Games
Super Bunny Man older $14.99 10,143 85% 304k $4.6M (exactly $4,561,307) Catobyte
The Censor DX Edition $17.99 1,467 82% 44k $792k (exactly $791,740) Tiramisu, Big S Studio
Mosa Lina older $7.99 2,014 95% 60k $483k (exactly $482,756) Stuffed Wombat, Silkersoft, Lukke, Roll… (Stuffed Wombat, Silkersoft, Lukke, Rollin'Barrel)
Lakeview Cabin Collection older $9.99 1,599 94% 48k $479k (exactly $479,220) Roope Tamminen
Luna's Fishing Garden older $7.99 1,689 93% 51k $405k (exactly $404,853) Coldwild Games, illufinch
Space Simulation Toolkit · EA older $24.99 500 80% 15k $375k (exactly $374,850) Pavel Kudinov
Contraption Maker older $12.99 922 92% 28k $359k (exactly $359,303) Kevin Ryan
RUBATO $19.99 441 97% 13k $264k (exactly $264,468) dconn
Smack Studio older $14.99 522 85% 16k $235k (exactly $234,743) ThirdPixel Interactive
Song's Fantasy $7.99 229 55% 6.9k $55k (exactly $54,891) 南十字座工作室
Snacktorio $7.99 215 90% 6.5k $52k (exactly $51,536) ellraiser
仙之气 · EA $10.99 114 74% 3.4k $38k (exactly $37,586) 按键工坊
Yuma Nest · EA $19.99 57 89% 1.7k $34k (exactly $34,183) Piokou
Scribble Bots $6.99 116 87% 3.5k $24k (exactly $24,325) Mr Mango Games
Skyline Urban Story $6.99 106 90% 3.2k $22k (exactly $22,228) PandaUpStudio
Electrogical $7.99 87 93% 2.6k $21k (exactly $20,854) kinjo
Football Fictional World Simulator $14.99 24 75% 720 $11k (exactly $10,793) keigo0221

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.