Do I ship it?

Games › Physics › Physics + 2D Platformer

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics 2D Platformer?

Physics + 2D Platformer

Of 473 developers who shipped a Physics 2D Platformer in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 502 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $270 in the last 2 years and $300 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 255 developers shipped in the last year and 502 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 502 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Physics + 2D Platformer
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 473
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $359 → $479 → $449 → $300 → $359 → $269 → $299 (still earning) → $135 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Physics + 2D Platformer: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 473
Bottom 30% $89 (exactly $89)
Median $270 (exactly $270)
Top 25% $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Top 5% $15k (exactly $15,103)
Developers, 2 yr 473
Released games 1,312
Announced 502
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
2D Platformer
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Physics, 2D Platformer; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Platformer, Action, Adventure
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 3,851 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $89, median $270, 1 in 4 over $1.1k, 1 in 20 over $15k.

3 in 10 developers made under $89. Nearly all of the 266 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 502 games are announced against 255 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Physics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair28 devs · median $5.9k · 20 announced
  3. + PinballFair62 devs · median $2.5k · 80 announced
  4. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  5. + Mini GolfFair40 devs · median $1.2k · 44 announced
  6. + GolfFair55 devs · median $987 · 59 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair179 devs · median $718 · 230 announced
  8. + IdlerFair142 devs · median $718 · 167 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair162 devs · median $600 · 157 announced
  10. + CatsFair76 devs · median $599 · 101 announced
  11. + Mystery DungeonFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced
  12. + BilliardsFair36 devs · median $538 · 32 announced

All 251 pairs on the Physics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Noita 2020 · $49M Rain World 2017 · $35M Trine 2: Complete Story 2013 · $9.2M ROUNDS 2021 · $6.4M Trine Enchanted Edition 2009 · $5.8M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Noita older $19.99 81,149 95% 2.4M $49M (exactly $48,665,055) Nolla Games
Rain World older $24.99 46,871 94% 1.4M $35M (exactly $35,139,189) Videocult
Trine 2: Complete Story older $19.99 15,273 95% 458k $9.2M (exactly $9,159,218) Frozenbyte
ROUNDS older $5.99 35,738 95% 1.1M $6.4M (exactly $6,422,119) Landfall
Trine Enchanted Edition older $14.99 12,843 95% 385k $5.8M (exactly $5,775,497) Frozenbyte
Super Bunny Man older $14.99 10,143 85% 304k $4.6M (exactly $4,561,307) Catobyte
Webbed older $9.99 13,820 97% 415k $4.1M (exactly $4,141,854) Sbug Games
Hidden Deep · EA older $24.99 4,293 76% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,218,462) Cogwheel Software
Unravel older $19.99 4,450 90% 134k $2.7M (exactly $2,668,665) Coldwood Interactive
Trine 5: A Clockwork Conspiracy older $29.99 2,524 89% 76k $2.3M (exactly $2,270,843) Frozenbyte
Bionic Bay $19.99 750 84% 23k $450k (exactly $449,775) Psychoflow Studio, Mureena Oy
Twin Shot Deluxe $9.99 1,167 95% 35k $350k (exactly $349,750) Nitrome Limited
RUBATO $19.99 441 97% 13k $264k (exactly $264,468) dconn
Brave Escape $19.99 145 97% 4.4k $87k (exactly $86,956) Hit Start Studios
Head's Adventures:chibichibi $7.99 334 97% 10k $80k (exactly $80,060) ManaWanderer
Exographer $19.99 124 94% 3.7k $74k (exactly $74,363) SciFunGames
MainFrames $12.99 166 88% 5.0k $65k (exactly $64,690) Assoupi
Stuck Together $11.99 161 88% 4.8k $58k (exactly $57,912) Hugecalf Studios
Knock'Em Out $7.99 239 85% 7.2k $57k (exactly $57,288) BBear Studio
The Strongest TOFU $4.99 324 99% 9.7k $49k (exactly $48,503) Zounoashi Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.