Do I ship it?

GamesExplorationExploration + 2D Platformer

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Exploration 2D Platformer?

Exploration + 2D Platformer

Of 565 developers who shipped an Exploration 2D Platformer in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,083 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $840, ×1.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $190k, ×403 the market median. Revenue is up 35% on the market; 1,083 games are announced against 307 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 35% on the market, 1,083 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Exploration + 2D Platformer
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 565
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $1.2k → $1.2k → $838 → $1.3k → $898 → $1.3k (still earning) → $479 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Exploration + 2D Platformer: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 565
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $839 (exactly $839)
Top 25% $6.9k (exactly $6,886)
Top 5% $191k (exactly $191,304)
Developers, 2 yr 565
Released games 1,712
Announced 1,083
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 35% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
2D Platformer
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Exploration, 2D Platformer; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Platformer
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 28,150 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $840, 1 in 4 over $6.8k, 1 in 20 over $190k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 9 in 10 of the 319 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,083 games are announced against 307 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Exploration with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair31 devs · median $6.7k · 42 announced
  3. + SpaceshipsFair22 devs · median $3.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair122 devs · median $2.2k · 109 announced
  5. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds12 devs · median $192k · 35 announced
  7. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  8. + Martial ArtsPoor odds25 devs · median $69k · 90 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds146 devs · median $58k · 354 announced
  10. + MMORPGPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced
  11. + FMVPoor odds45 devs · median $27k · 76 announced
  12. + FarmingPoor odds41 devs · median $24k · 58 announced

All 258 pairs on the Exploration page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Celeste older $19.99 132,072 97% 4.0M $79M (exactly $79,203,578) Maddy Makes Games Inc., Extremely OK Ga… (Maddy Makes Games Inc., Extremely OK Games, Ltd.)
Rain World older $24.99 46,871 94% 1.4M $35M (exactly $35,139,189) Videocult
觅长生 older $14.99 27,072 93% 812k $12M (exactly $12,174,278) Chalcedony Network
Night in the Woods older $19.99 17,760 94% 533k $11M (exactly $10,650,672) Infinite Fall
Prince of Persia The Lost Crown older $29.99 6,754 84% 203k $6.1M (exactly $6,076,574) Ubisoft Montpellier
Afterimage older $24.99 6,929 79% 208k $5.2M (exactly $5,194,671) Aurogon Shanghai
Sonic Origins older $29.99 5,322 77% 160k $4.8M (exactly $4,788,203) Sonic Team
Thank Goodness You're Here! older $19.99 7,742 96% 232k $4.6M (exactly $4,642,877) Coal Supper
ANNO: Mutationem older $24.99 5,833 80% 175k $4.4M (exactly $4,373,000) ThinkingStars
Webbed older $9.99 13,820 97% 415k $4.1M (exactly $4,141,854) Sbug Games
MIO: Memories in Orbit $19.99 4,300 83% 129k $2.6M (exactly $2,578,710) Douze Dixièmes
ANTONBLAST $19.99 3,943 95% 118k $2.4M (exactly $2,364,617) Summitsphere
Öoo $9.99 6,575 99% 197k $2.0M (exactly $1,970,528) NamaTakahashi, tiny cactus studio, Tsuy… (NamaTakahashi, tiny cactus studio, Tsuyomi)
Train45 $10.99 3,823 97% 115k $1.3M (exactly $1,260,443) Elniko
Pipistrello and the Cursed Yoyo $19.99 1,993 97% 60k $1.2M (exactly $1,195,202) Pocket Trap
灾厄黑龙与谎言公主 $9.99 3,682 90% 110k $1.1M (exactly $1,103,495) 莓夜工作室
The Censor DX Edition $17.99 1,467 82% 44k $792k (exactly $791,740) Tiramisu, Big S Studio
AWAKEN - Astral Blade $19.99 1,121 82% 34k $672k (exactly $672,264) Dark Pigeon Games
KYOTO XANADU -the Blooming Phantom- $54.99 403 78% 12k $665k (exactly $664,829) Nihon Falcom
Darwin's Paradox! $24.99 843 87% 25k $632k (exactly $631,997) ZDT Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.