Do I ship it?

GamesSandboxSandbox + 2D Fighter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a 2D Fighter Sandbox?

Sandbox + 2D Fighter

Only 15 developers shipped a 2D Fighter Sandbox in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Path of Kung Fu, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $270 in the last 2 years and $270 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 8 developers shipped in the last year and 21 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 400% on the market, 21 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + 2D Fighter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $416 → $270 → $1.2k (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sandbox + 2D Fighter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $30 (exactly $30)
Median $270 (exactly $270)
Top 25% $1.6k (exactly $1,615)
Top 5% $2.2M (exactly $2,194,536)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 36
Announced 21
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 400% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
2D Fighter
effort 5 / 10 · low · frame-precise animation and rollback netcode

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox, 2D Fighter
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 72% positive over 4,957 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $270, 1 in 4 over $1.6k, 1 in 20 over $2.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 21 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Your Only Move Is HUSTLE older $4.99 38,703 96% 1.2M $5.8M (exactly $5,793,839) Ivy Sly
Path of Kung Fu $14.99 4,880 72% 146k $2.2M (exactly $2,194,536) 游鲤化龙工作室
Smack Studio older $14.99 522 85% 16k $235k (exactly $234,743) ThirdPixel Interactive
SHIPS AT WAR · EA older $14.99 369 76% 11k $166k (exactly $165,939) Golddorf Spieleentwicklung
New ZhaoYun older $29.99 25 44% 750 $22k (exactly $22,492) XBZYZ Game
Street karate 3 older $4.99 55 80% 1.7k $8.2k (exactly $8,234) Essential Tactics Games
Build 'n Bump older $4.99 30 76% 900 $4.5k (exactly $4,491) Roppy Chop Studios
Knockout Battle $4.99 24 70% 720 $3.6k (exactly $3,593) Dani Tikka Masala, Alvin Leon Dobric, A… (Dani Tikka Masala, Alvin Leon Dobric, Anton Ploetner)
Company Rising $8.99 11 18% 330 $3.0k (exactly $2,967) Director Liu
Sex Apartments older $1.99 31 67% 930 $1.9k (exactly $1,851) Slippy Floor
Valkeala Birds $2.99 18 77% 540 $1.6k (exactly $1,615) Valkeala Software, Tero Lunkka
Assassin Of Aliens $3.99 10 80% 300 $1.2k (exactly $1,197) Saylor Games
Stickforge $4.99 5 60% 150 $748 (exactly $748) Noldo
PNG BATTLE $4.99 4 100% 120 $599 (exactly $599) marimori
星界远航 Stellar Realm Voyage · EA $8.99 1 100% 30 $270 (exactly $270) SGAIZFTX
SpyGuys $2.99 3 66% 90 $269 (exactly $269) Olly
Astro Raid $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Coding Alpaka

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.