Do I ship it?

GamesPvPPvP + 2D Fighter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvP 2D Fighter?

PvP + 2D Fighter

Of 183 developers who shipped a PvP 2D Fighter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 303 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $810, ×0.5 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210. 303 games are announced against 105 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper, while revenue is down 10% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 303 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvP + 2D Fighter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 183
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $416 → $1.6k → $1.2k → $2.2k → $959 → $719 → $597 (still earning) → $600 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvP + 2D Fighter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 183
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $809 (exactly $809)
Top 25% $3.6k (exactly $3,596)
Top 5% $237k (exactly $237,130)
Developers, 2 yr 183
Released games 574
Announced 303
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 23%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvP
effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
2D Fighter
effort 5 / 10 · low · frame-precise animation and rollback netcode

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
PvP, 2D Fighter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Arcade, Fighting
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 29,700 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $810, 1 in 4 over $3.5k, 1 in 20 over $230k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 9 in 10 of the 104 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 303 games are announced against 105 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BaseballFair6 devs · median $7.6k · 9 announced
  2. + TransportationFair10 devs · median $5.7k · 11 announced
  3. + BasketballFair25 devs · median $2.6k · 28 announced
  4. + Football (American)Fair17 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  5. + BikesFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  6. + GolfFair29 devs · median $1.4k · 34 announced
  7. + World War IFair12 devs · median $1.3k · 14 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair36 devs · median $1.2k · 48 announced
  9. + BilliardsFair18 devs · median $1.1k · 12 announced
  10. + TennisLong shot17 devs · median $899 · 15 announced
  11. + TypingLong shot28 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  12. + SpellingLong shot14 devs · median $719 · 17 announced

All 247 pairs on the PvP page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Street Fighter™ 6 older $39.99 49,952 81% 1.5M $60M (exactly $59,927,414) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
GUILTY GEAR -STRIVE- older $39.99 47,650 88% 1.4M $57M (exactly $57,165,705) Arc System Works
Mortal Kombat 1 older $49.99 34,197 74% 1.0M $51M (exactly $51,285,241) NetherRealm Studios, QLOC
Demon Slayer -Kimetsu no Yaiba- The Hinokami Chronicles older $59.99 16,545 87% 496k $30M (exactly $29,776,036) CyberConnect2
Injustice™ 2 older $49.99 17,445 86% 523k $26M (exactly $26,162,266) NetherRealm Studios, QLOC
JoJo's Bizarre Adventure: All-Star Battle R older $49.99 14,344 91% 430k $22M (exactly $21,511,697) CyberConnect2 Co. Ltd.
Stick Fight: The Game older $4.99 99,952 93% 3.0M $15M (exactly $14,962,814) Landfall West
MELTY BLOOD: TYPE LUMINA older $49.99 9,130 88% 274k $14M (exactly $13,692,261) FRENCH-BREAD, TYPE-MOON, Lasengle Inc.,… (FRENCH-BREAD, TYPE-MOON, Lasengle Inc., TAMSOFT CORPORATION, GameLoop Inc.)
THE KING OF FIGHTERS XV $29.99 8,399 83% 252k $7.6M (exactly $7,556,580) SNK CORPORATION
GUILTY GEAR Xrd REV 2 older $29.99 8,002 94% 240k $7.2M (exactly $7,199,399) Arc System Works
Rivals of Aether II $29.99 6,980 78% 209k $6.3M (exactly $6,279,906) Aether Studios
Invincible VS $49.99 3,031 76% 91k $4.5M (exactly $4,545,591) Quarter Up
Avatar Legends: The Fighting Game $29.99 3,298 85% 99k $3.0M (exactly $2,967,211) Gameplay Group International
FATAL FURY: City of the Wolves $19.99 3,135 82% 94k $1.9M (exactly $1,880,059) SNK CORPORATION
Mortal Kombat: Legacy Kollection $49.99 1,214 63% 36k $1.8M (exactly $1,820,636) Digital Eclipse
A Few Quick Matches $6.99 2,475 85% 74k $519k (exactly $519,008) Studio Bidou
HUNTER×HUNTER NEN×IMPACT $59.99 230 64% 6.9k $414k (exactly $413,931) Bushiroad Games
Iron Saga VS $29.99 376 79% 11k $338k (exactly $338,287) Gameduchy
THE KING OF FIGHTERS XIII GLOBAL MATCH $19.99 562 55% 17k $337k (exactly $337,031) SAFARI GAMES

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.