Do I ship it?

GamesClass-BasedClass-Based + 2D Fighter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a 2D Fighter Class-Based game?

Class-Based + 2D Fighter

Only 13 developers shipped a 2D Fighter Class-Based game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Trials of Valor, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 18 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $90 in the last 2 years and $270 over 4, against a market of $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build. 7 developers shipped in the last year and 18 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 18 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Class-Based + 2D Fighter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Class-Based + 2D Fighter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $90 (exactly $90)
Top 25% $3.0k (exactly $2,967)
Top 5% $57k (exactly $56,970)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 35
Announced 18
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 31%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Class-Based
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
2D Fighter
effort 5 / 10 · low · frame-precise animation and rollback netcode

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Class-Based, 2D Fighter
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 8 games average 87% positive over 177 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $90, 1 in 4 over $2.9k, 1 in 20 over $56k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 18 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Class-Based with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair19 devs · median $6.6k · 22 announced
  2. + Bullet HeavenFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 38 announced
  3. + SupernaturalLong shot18 devs · median $599 · 21 announced
  4. + 2D PlatformerLong shot26 devs · median $539 · 30 announced
  5. + FPSPoor odds22 devs · median $70k · 70 announced
  6. + MMORPGPoor odds7 devs · median $61k · 57 announced
  7. + Base BuildingPoor odds18 devs · median $33k · 44 announced
  8. + WarPoor odds17 devs · median $32k · 59 announced
  9. + Souls-likePoor odds16 devs · median $18k · 29 announced
  10. + MilitaryPoor odds17 devs · median $13k · 42 announced
  11. + Third-Person ShooterPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  12. + WargamePoor odds14 devs · median $9.4k · 28 announced

All 111 pairs on the Class-Based page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Swords and Sandals Immortals older $11.99 1,056 84% 32k $380k (exactly $379,843) Whiskeybarrel Studios
Tower Walker: MMO Grind Simulator older $9.99 270 77% 8.1k $81k (exactly $80,919) Raptor Claw Games, Millendream
Trials of Valor $18.99 100 95% 3.0k $57k (exactly $56,970) Armored Goblin
Swords and Sandals Medieval older $6.99 50 76% 1.5k $10k (exactly $10,485) Whiskeybarrel Studios
MAGE: Mega Awesome Gregarious Encounters $9.99 29 89% 870 $8.7k (exactly $8,691) FunRug Studio
Battle Squares $9.99 17 76% 510 $5.1k (exactly $5,095) Feesh Studio
Company Rising $8.99 11 18% 330 $3.0k (exactly $2,967) Director Liu
Slime Battles $4.99 15 100% 450 $2.2k (exactly $2,246) Nish Studios
The Infecting 3 older $1.99 8 75% 240 $478 (exactly $478) Immure Creations®
Mystic Strife older $0.99 10 100% 300 $297 (exactly $297) jSpeak
SpyGuys $2.99 3 66% 90 $269 (exactly $269) Olly
SuperCowBoy $2.99 1 100% 30 $90 (exactly $90) liu ningmeng
Uncles · EA $2.50 1 100% 30 $75 (exactly $75) bittabutt
Mini Dungeon · EA $8.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Metuzals Games
Whotfire $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) TinCity Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.