Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Open World Survival Craft

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Open World Survival Craft?

Open World Survival Craft

Of 196 developers who shipped an Open World Survival Craft in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 461 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 9 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $50k, ×37 the market's $1.3k for a 9 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $9.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $16M, ×12320 the market median. Revenue is up 80% on the market; 461 games are announced against 112 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 37.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 461 announced, ×4.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World Survival Craft
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 196
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $42k → $11k → $86k → $128k → $31k → $72k → $71k (still earning) → $22k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World Survival Craft: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 196
Bottom 30% $9.3k (exactly $9,291)
Median $50k (exactly $49,917)
Top 25% $715k (exactly $714,599)
Top 5% $17M (exactly $16,594,966)
Developers, 2 yr 196
Released games 685
Announced 461
Effort 9 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World Survival Craft
effort 9 / 10 · low · dedicated multiplayer servers over a huge content build

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
9 / 10 · studio only
Systems
Open World Survival Craft
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 1,234,724 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $9.3k, median $50k, 1 in 4 over $710k, 1 in 20 over $16M.

3 in 10 developers made under $9.3k. 5 in 10 of the 93 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 461 games are announced against 112 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Open World Survival Craft

11 pairs with a settingwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Open World Survival Craft + Medieval Poor odds $154k 13 devs
  2. Open World Survival Craft + Sci-fi Poor odds $124k 32 devs
  3. Open World Survival Craft + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $85k 46 devs
  4. Open World Survival Craft + Futuristic Poor odds $50k 7 devs
  5. Open World Survival Craft + Nature Poor odds $46k 19 devs
  6. Open World Survival Craft + Fantasy Poor odds $40k 21 devs
  7. Open World Survival Craft + Space Poor odds $32k 26 devs
  8. Open World Survival Craft + Zombies Poor odds $22k 20 devs
  9. Open World Survival Craft + Horror Poor odds $14k 18 devs
  10. Open World Survival Craft + Mystery Dead $26k 6 devs
  11. Open World Survival Craft + Aliens Dead $15k 5 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Rust 2018 · $1.4B No Man's Sky 2016 · $567M Valheim 2026 · $418M Terraria 2011 · $372M Palworld 2026 · $371M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Rust older $39.99 1,167,920 87% 35M $1.4B (exactly $1,401,153,624) Facepunch Studios
No Man's Sky older $59.99 315,054 83% 9.5M $567M (exactly $567,002,684) Hello Games
Valheim $29.99 464,893 94% 14M $418M (exactly $418,264,232) Iron Gate AB
Terraria older $9.99 1,240,388 97% 37M $372M (exactly $371,744,284) Re-Logic
Palworld $29.99 411,947 94% 12M $371M (exactly $370,628,716) Pocketpair
7 Days to Die older $44.99 273,589 87% 8.2M $369M (exactly $369,263,073) The Fun Pimps
The Forest older $19.99 581,431 95% 17M $349M (exactly $348,684,171) Endnight Games Ltd
Subnautica older $29.99 341,390 97% 10M $307M (exactly $307,148,583) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
Satisfactory older $39.99 234,993 97% 7.0M $282M (exactly $281,921,102) Coffee Stain Studios
Dying Light older $24.99 373,413 95% 11M $280M (exactly $279,947,726) Techland
SCUM $44.99 98,554 74% 3.0M $133M (exactly $133,018,334) Gamepires
Dune: Awakening $49.99 66,844 71% 2.0M $100M (exactly $100,245,947) Funcom
Abiotic Factor $34.99 42,075 95% 1.3M $44M (exactly $44,166,128) Deep Field Games
Windrose · EA $29.99 47,893 86% 1.4M $43M (exactly $43,089,332) Kraken Express
Deadside $24.99 34,560 76% 1.0M $26M (exactly $25,909,632) Bad Pixel
RuneScape: Dragonwilds $29.99 28,071 81% 842k $25M (exactly $25,255,479) Jagex Ltd
Grounded 2 · EA $29.99 21,442 82% 643k $19M (exactly $19,291,367) Obsidian Entertainment, Eidos-Montréal
Soulmask $29.99 18,445 76% 553k $17M (exactly $16,594,966) CampFire Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.