Do I ship it?

GamesStrategy RPGStrategy RPG + Dating Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dating Sim Strategy RPG?

Strategy RPG + Dating Sim

Of 30 developers who shipped a Dating Sim Strategy RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 41 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $35k, ×56 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $8.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $9.7M, ×15564 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 41 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 55.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 41 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy RPG + Dating Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 30
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $378k → $8.5k → $56k → $49k → $23k → $57k → $17k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy RPG + Dating Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 30
Bottom 30% $8.1k (exactly $8,091)
Median $35k (exactly $34,948)
Top 25% $448k (exactly $447,752)
Top 5% $9.8M (exactly $9,774,117)
Developers, 2 yr 30
Released games 82
Announced 41
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Dating Sim
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy RPG, Dating Sim; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, FMV, Interactive Fiction
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Cinematic, Emotional
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 125,596 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $8.1k, median $35k, 1 in 4 over $440k, 1 in 20 over $9.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $8.1k. 3 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 41 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SportsFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  2. + SwordplayFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair40 devs · median $2.0k · 31 announced
  4. + EconomyFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced
  5. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  6. + ConspiracyFair19 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  7. + Shop KeeperFair21 devs · median $987 · 25 announced
  8. + 2D PlatformerFair108 devs · median $479 · 113 announced
  9. + Point & ClickFair43 devs · median $450 · 47 announced
  10. + Turn-BasedPoor odds58 devs · median $63k · 76 announced
  11. + 4XPoor odds15 devs · median $31k · 33 announced
  12. + Martial ArtsPoor odds28 devs · median $18k · 45 announced

All 158 pairs on the Strategy RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
鬼谷八荒 Tale of Immortal older $19.99 190,184 56% 5.7M $114M (exactly $114,053,345) 鬼谷工作室
Persona 3 Reload older $59.99 43,497 95% 1.3M $78M (exactly $78,281,551) ATLUS
The Scroll of Taiwu : Beyond The Dome $29.99 56,535 65% 1.7M $51M (exactly $50,864,540) ConchShip Games
Revenge on gold diggers $6.99 46,610 80% 1.4M $9.8M (exactly $9,774,117) 前方工作室
Road to Empress I $8.49 11,829 86% 355k $3.0M (exactly $3,012,846) New One Studio
SubZero $9.99 2,719 92% 82k $815k (exactly $814,884) Joy Media Limited
Agarest: Generations of War older $14.99 1,668 70% 50k $750k (exactly $750,100) Idea Factory
极速营救 $9.99 1,860 86% 56k $557k (exactly $557,442) 优映文化, 想象颗粒
Ledgerbound $29.99 562 92% 17k $506k (exactly $505,631) OmniMegaSuperCorp
恋爱吗?我家猫会后空翻 $9.99 1,508 96% 45k $452k (exactly $451,948) 光循花火工作室
WindStop Strategy $9.99 1,494 78% 45k $448k (exactly $447,752) Xia Start
我打不过漂亮的她们 $10.99 1,111 95% 33k $366k (exactly $366,297) 想象颗粒
BM General Hospital $7.99 1,368 86% 41k $328k (exactly $327,910) zzzgame

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.