Do I ship it?

GamesStrategy RPGStrategy RPG + Turn-Based

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Turn-Based Strategy RPG?

Strategy RPG + Turn-Based

Of 58 developers who shipped a Turn-Based Strategy RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 76 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $63k, ×101 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $9.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $5.8M, ×9271 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 76 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 100.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 76 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy RPG + Turn-Based
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 58
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $82k → $49k → $168k → $57k → $121k → $42k → $59k (still earning) → $151k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy RPG + Turn-Based: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 58
Bottom 30% $9.0k (exactly $8,996)
Median $63k (exactly $63,173)
Top 25% $336k (exactly $336,432)
Top 5% $5.8M (exactly $5,822,144)
Developers, 2 yr 58
Released games 323
Announced 76
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Turn-Based
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy RPG, Turn-Based; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Isometric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 48,188 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $9.0k, median $63k, 1 in 4 over $330k, 1 in 20 over $5.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $9.0k. 4 in 10 of the 29 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 76 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SportsFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  2. + SwordplayFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair40 devs · median $2.0k · 31 announced
  4. + EconomyFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced
  5. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  6. + ConspiracyFair19 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  7. + Shop KeeperFair21 devs · median $987 · 25 announced
  8. + 2D PlatformerFair108 devs · median $479 · 113 announced
  9. + Point & ClickFair43 devs · median $450 · 47 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds30 devs · median $35k · 41 announced
  11. + 4XPoor odds15 devs · median $31k · 33 announced
  12. + Martial ArtsPoor odds28 devs · median $18k · 45 announced

All 158 pairs on the Strategy RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
STAR WARS Zero Company™ $49.99 19,521 82% 586k $29M (exactly $29,275,644) Bit Reactor
Battle Brothers older $29.99 26,118 87% 784k $23M (exactly $23,498,365) Overhype Studios
For The King older $19.99 31,038 87% 931k $19M (exactly $18,613,489) IronOak Games
Pathfinder: Kingmaker — Enhanced Plus Edition older $19.99 28,146 77% 844k $17M (exactly $16,879,156) Owlcat Games
MENACE · EA $39.99 12,281 90% 368k $15M (exactly $14,733,516) Overhype Studios
Jagged Alliance 3 older $44.99 10,882 89% 326k $15M (exactly $14,687,435) Haemimont Games
SD GUNDAM G GENERATION CROSS RAYS older $59.99 6,939 82% 208k $12M (exactly $12,488,118) TOM CREATE, 株式会社トムクリエイト
The Banner Saga older $24.99 13,470 88% 404k $10M (exactly $10,098,459) Stoic
Super Robot Wars 30 older $59.99 5,608 85% 168k $10M (exactly $10,092,718) Bandai Namco Forge Digitals Inc.
The Last Spell older $24.99 13,260 91% 398k $9.9M (exactly $9,941,022) Ishtar Games
Xenonauts 2 $39.99 4,853 81% 146k $5.8M (exactly $5,822,144) Goldhawk Interactive
Cyber Knights: Flashpoint $29.99 2,926 93% 88k $2.6M (exactly $2,632,522) Trese Brothers
Warhammer 40,000: Mechanicus II $39.99 2,088 53% 63k $2.5M (exactly $2,504,974) Bulwark Studios
The Last Flame $19.99 2,744 85% 82k $1.6M (exactly $1,645,577) Hotloop
Demeo x Dungeons & Dragons: Battlemarked $29.99 1,235 82% 37k $1.1M (exactly $1,111,130) Resolution Games
Metal Slug Tactics $24.99 1,152 76% 35k $864k (exactly $863,654) Leikir Studio
Warhounds $34.99 735 71% 22k $772k (exactly $771,530) Everplay DMCC
Urban Strife $34.99 653 69% 20k $685k (exactly $685,454) White Pond Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.