Do I ship it?

GamesSpace SimSpace Sim + Strategy RPG

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Strategy RPG Space Sim?

Space Sim + Strategy RPG

Only 8 developers shipped a Strategy RPG Space Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Starminer, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.9k, ×7.8 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $1.6M, ×2605 the market median. Revenue is up 265% on the market; 21 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 265% on the market, 21 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Space Sim + Strategy RPG
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $11k → $1.8k → $13k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Space Sim + Strategy RPG: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8
Bottom 30% $416 (exactly $416)
Median $4.9k (exactly $4,908)
Top 25% $17k (exactly $17,391)
Top 5% $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655)
Developers, 2 yr 8
Released games 33
Announced 21
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 265% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Space Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Strategy RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Space Sim, Strategy RPG
Price point
$11.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 8 games average 72% positive over 1,945 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $420, median $4.9k, 1 in 4 over $17k, 1 in 20 over $1.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $420. 8 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 21 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Space Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DestructionFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 22 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair9 devs · median $3.6k · 12 announced
  3. + Tactical RPGFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 15 announced
  4. + WarFair34 devs · median $1.3k · 42 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorFair16 devs · median $598 · 20 announced
  6. + SportsFair8 devs · median $479 · 9 announced
  7. + DiplomacyLong shot7 devs · median $360 · 14 announced
  8. + MilitaryPoor odds18 devs · median $6.3k · 39 announced
  9. + Online Co-OpPoor odds18 devs · median $4.9k · 63 announced
  10. + SandboxPoor odds86 devs · median $4.6k · 213 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds42 devs · median $4.6k · 91 announced
  12. + Base BuildingPoor odds67 devs · median $4.5k · 160 announced

All 114 pairs on the Space Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Starpoint Gemini Warlords older $34.99 3,076 72% 92k $3.2M (exactly $3,228,877) Little Green Men Games
Starminer · EA $29.99 1,818 72% 55k $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655) CoolAndGoodGames
Lightracer Spark older $12.99 970 83% 29k $378k (exactly $378,009) Smartmelon Games
Base One older $24.99 458 36% 14k $343k (exactly $343,363) PixFroze
WarOS · EA $19.99 29 72% 870 $17k (exactly $17,391) The7 Studio
Spacefleet: Heat Death · EA $11.99 36 86% 1.1k $13k (exactly $12,949) Spacezero Interactive
Epic Astro Story older $8.99 44 84% 1.3k $12k (exactly $11,867) Kairosoft Co.,Ltd
Galactic Crew II older $13.99 27 33% 810 $11k (exactly $11,332) Benjamin Rommel Games
Kairobotica older $8.99 42 73% 1.3k $11k (exactly $11,327) Kairosoft Co.,Ltd
TuHou Remilia - Begin Of Scarlet Family older $6.99 33 9% 990 $6.9k (exactly $6,920) CoKe_Deer
Idle Fleet $3.99 41 82% 1.2k $4.9k (exactly $4,908) Idleforge Games
Ironseed 2 : Consensus $15.99 5 80% 150 $2.4k (exactly $2,398) Robert Morgan
Ironseed 3 : Vigil $17.99 1 100% 30 $540 (exactly $540) Robert Morgan
Halley Mission: 2061 $0.99 14 64% 420 $416 (exactly $416) PcZ Games
Muhe space $6.99 1 0% 30 $210 (exactly $210) klmfs
Ironseed : Lost Chapter $2.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Robert Morgan
RobotAssembly · EA $2.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) ONEKICK CO.,LTD.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.