Do I ship it?

GamesSurvivalSurvival + Idler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Idler Survival game?

Survival + Idler

Of 96 developers who shipped an Idler Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 99 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $840, ×1.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $270. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 99 games are announced against 59 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 99 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival + Idler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 96
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $13k → $300 → $2.4k → $839 → $1.2k → $1.4k → $807 (still earning) → $719 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival + Idler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 96
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $836 (exactly $836)
Top 25% $2.2k (exactly $2,159)
Top 5% $98k (exactly $98,116)
Developers, 2 yr 96
Released games 193
Announced 99
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Idler
effort 1 / 10 · high · number growth curves and a UI

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival, Idler; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Incremental, RPG
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $6.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $6.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 6,139 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $840, 1 in 4 over $2.1k, 1 in 20 over $98k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 9 in 10 of the 40 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 99 games are announced against 59 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Social DeductionFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  3. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $2.1k · 29 announced
  4. + CatsFair33 devs · median $1.2k · 34 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair77 devs · median $1.0k · 84 announced
  6. + Auto BattlerFair79 devs · median $807 · 90 announced
  7. + IncrementalFair101 devs · median $599 · 130 announced
  8. + DogsFair20 devs · median $535 · 19 announced
  9. + Martial ArtsLong shot19 devs · median $419 · 17 announced
  10. + Boomer ShooterLong shot39 devs · median $359 · 32 announced
  11. + DiplomacyPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced
  12. + SteampunkPoor odds10 devs · median $78k · 49 announced

All 234 pairs on the Survival page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Forage Wizard $6.99 1,549 87% 46k $325k (exactly $324,825) Lost Maxim
Another Try 2 · EA $6.99 1,000 53% 30k $210k (exactly $209,700) Hoki Wolf Studio
Stone Simulator – Just Be a Rock $3.99 1,532 94% 46k $183k (exactly $183,380) STFGames
XiuzhenWorld older $12.99 436 75% 13k $170k (exactly $169,909) Noforgetit
Legendary Hoplite older $14.99 335 63% 10k $151k (exactly $150,650) TripleBricksGames
Increlution · EA older $3.99 1,237 85% 37k $148k (exactly $148,069) Gniller
Dead District: Survival older $9.99 415 48% 12k $124k (exactly $124,376) BadBit Games
Cultivation Magic World · EA $12.99 276 78% 8.3k $108k (exactly $107,557) DMG Studio
Chicken Assassin: Reloaded older $4.99 715 94% 21k $107k (exactly $107,036) OneShark
Joyville older $9.99 331 69% 9.9k $99k (exactly $99,201) KudPlay Games
Minutescape $5.99 546 74% 16k $98k (exactly $98,116) Molter
Rock Crusher $6.99 352 84% 11k $74k (exactly $73,814) Mini Fun Games
All Aboard! The Train Defense Express $4.99 379 84% 11k $57k (exactly $56,736) Likadev
Incrempire $6.99 167 68% 5.0k $35k (exactly $35,020) FMGames, Regnum Noctis
Thunder Tank: Iron Shield $3.99 221 82% 6.6k $26k (exactly $26,454) Crazy Studio
Ash Warden $6.99 117 70% 3.5k $25k (exactly $24,535) Mgfa Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.