Do I ship it?

GamesSurvivalSurvival + Incremental

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Incremental Survival game?

Survival + Incremental

Of 101 developers who shipped an Incremental Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 130 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $240. Revenue is up 70% on the market; 130 games are announced against 66 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 70% on the market, 130 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival + Incremental
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 101
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $629 → $537 → $838 → $359 → $446 → $628 → $1.2k (still earning) → $300 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival + Incremental: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 101
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $1.9k (exactly $1,946)
Top 5% $65k (exactly $64,728)
Developers, 2 yr 101
Released games 220
Announced 130
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 70% on the market, supply 90% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Incremental
effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival, Incremental; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Idler, Tower Defense
Price point
$3.99 typical · top 25% priced $6.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Relaxing, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $6.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 6,816 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $600, 1 in 4 over $1.9k, 1 in 20 over $64k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 9 in 10 of the 39 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 130 games are announced against 66 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Social DeductionFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  3. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $2.1k · 29 announced
  4. + CatsFair33 devs · median $1.2k · 34 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair77 devs · median $1.0k · 84 announced
  6. + IdlerFair96 devs · median $836 · 99 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair79 devs · median $807 · 90 announced
  8. + DogsFair20 devs · median $535 · 19 announced
  9. + Martial ArtsLong shot19 devs · median $419 · 17 announced
  10. + Boomer ShooterLong shot39 devs · median $359 · 32 announced
  11. + DiplomacyPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced
  12. + SteampunkPoor odds10 devs · median $78k · 49 announced

All 234 pairs on the Survival page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
How Many Dudes? $14.99 2,948 89% 88k $1.3M (exactly $1,325,716) Butterscotch Shenanigans
Forage Wizard $6.99 1,549 87% 46k $325k (exactly $324,825) Lost Maxim
Increlution · EA older $3.99 1,237 85% 37k $148k (exactly $148,069) Gniller
Chicken Assassin: Reloaded older $4.99 715 94% 21k $107k (exactly $107,036) OneShark
Minutescape $5.99 546 74% 16k $98k (exactly $98,116) Molter
Music Band Manager older $7.99 339 52% 10k $81k (exactly $81,258) Hamsters Gaming
Rock Crusher $6.99 352 84% 11k $74k (exactly $73,814) Mini Fun Games
KUNKUN Defender older $2.99 822 97% 25k $74k (exactly $73,733) Seal
Terraformental · EA $5.99 365 97% 11k $66k (exactly $65,590) Shady Games
Fatal Countdown - immoral List of Desires older $10.99 197 76% 5.9k $65k (exactly $64,951) Secret Garden
Ancient Cultivatrix $8.99 240 67% 7.2k $65k (exactly $64,728) 五条虾仁(5 shrimps)
All Aboard! The Train Defense Express $4.99 379 84% 11k $57k (exactly $56,736) Likadev
Incrempire $6.99 167 68% 5.0k $35k (exactly $35,020) FMGames, Regnum Noctis
Loot Frog $6.89 153 79% 4.6k $32k (exactly $31,625) Clumsy Dog
Ash Warden $6.99 117 70% 3.5k $25k (exactly $24,535) Mgfa Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.