Do I ship it?

GamesDiplomacyDiplomacy + Survival

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Diplomacy Survival game?

Diplomacy + Survival

Only 16 developers shipped a Diplomacy Survival game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Corsair Cove, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 28 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $100k, ×159 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $960; 1 in 20 cleared $3.6M, ×5781 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 28 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 158.5 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 28 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Diplomacy + Survival
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $30M → $85k → $1.5M → $100k → $1.8M (still earning) → $55k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Diplomacy + Survival: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $955 (exactly $955)
Median $100k (exactly $99,550)
Top 25% $2.3M (exactly $2,270,092)
Top 5% $3.6M (exactly $3,630,292)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 36
Announced 28
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $19.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 120% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Diplomacy
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Diplomacy, Survival
Price point
$19.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 20,918 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $960, median $100k, 1 in 4 over $2.2M, 1 in 20 over $3.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $960. 3 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 28 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Diplomacy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelFair16 devs · median $5.4k · 19 announced
  2. + Interactive FictionFair12 devs · median $1.0k · 17 announced
  3. + Space SimLong shot7 devs · median $360 · 14 announced
  4. + Open WorldPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  5. + Base BuildingPoor odds19 devs · median $520k · 47 announced
  6. + PvPPoor odds10 devs · median $124k · 44 announced
  7. + SandboxPoor odds34 devs · median $116k · 89 announced
  8. + City BuilderPoor odds26 devs · median $108k · 47 announced
  9. + 4XPoor odds29 devs · median $86k · 79 announced
  10. + HistoricalPoor odds50 devs · median $79k · 92 announced
  11. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds30 devs · median $79k · 48 announced
  12. + Character CustomizationPoor odds9 devs · median $63k · 31 announced

All 57 pairs on the Diplomacy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Manor Lords · EA older $39.99 76,884 84% 2.3M $92M (exactly $92,237,735) Slavic Magic
Against the Storm older $29.99 33,271 94% 998k $30M (exactly $29,933,919) Eremite Games
Workers & Resources: Soviet Republic older $39.99 24,825 91% 745k $30M (exactly $29,782,552) 3Division
Empires of the Undergrowth older $29.99 17,483 94% 524k $16M (exactly $15,729,455) Slug Disco
Eco · EA older $29.99 11,375 80% 341k $10M (exactly $10,234,088) Strange Loop Games
Norland · EA older $29.99 8,906 81% 267k $8.0M (exactly $8,012,728) Long Jaunt
Corsair Cove $39.99 3,026 85% 91k $3.6M (exactly $3,630,292) Limbic Entertainment
Cataclismo $29.99 3,899 88% 117k $3.5M (exactly $3,507,930) Digital Sun
Whiskerwood · EA $29.99 3,221 92% 97k $2.9M (exactly $2,897,934) Minakata Dynamics
Eastern Era $24.99 3,028 65% 91k $2.3M (exactly $2,270,092) FunYoo Games
Nova Roma · EA $29.99 2,085 93% 63k $1.9M (exactly $1,875,874) Lion Shield
Heart of the Machine $29.99 2,010 91% 60k $1.8M (exactly $1,808,397) Arcen Games
House of Legacy · EA $14.99 3,269 84% 98k $1.5M (exactly $1,470,069) S3 Studio
Knights of the Crusades $19.99 166 69% 5.0k $100k (exactly $99,550) Reverie World Studios
Renaissance Kingdom Wars $19.99 141 70% 4.2k $85k (exactly $84,558) Reverie World Studios
Folk Emerging $24.99 73 86% 2.2k $55k (exactly $54,728) Curious Dynamics

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.