Do I ship it?

GamesSurvivalSurvival + Collectathon

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Collectathon Survival game?

Survival + Collectathon

Of 77 developers who shipped a Collectathon Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 84 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×1.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $180. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 84 games are announced against 46 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 84 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival + Collectathon
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 77
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.6k → $1.2k → $179 → $1.4k → $1.2k → $298 → $1.3k (still earning) → $60 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival + Collectathon: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 77
Bottom 30% $180 (exactly $180)
Median $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Top 25% $7.2k (exactly $7,186)
Top 5% $144k (exactly $143,957)
Developers, 2 yr 77
Released games 220
Announced 84
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival, Collectathon; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Crafting, Exploration
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 4,134 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $1.0k, 1 in 4 over $7.1k, 1 in 20 over $140k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 44 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 84 games are announced against 46 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Social DeductionFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  3. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $2.1k · 29 announced
  4. + CatsFair33 devs · median $1.2k · 34 announced
  5. + IdlerFair96 devs · median $836 · 99 announced
  6. + Auto BattlerFair79 devs · median $807 · 90 announced
  7. + IncrementalFair101 devs · median $599 · 130 announced
  8. + DogsFair20 devs · median $535 · 19 announced
  9. + Martial ArtsLong shot19 devs · median $419 · 17 announced
  10. + Boomer ShooterLong shot39 devs · median $359 · 32 announced
  11. + DiplomacyPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced
  12. + SteampunkPoor odds10 devs · median $78k · 49 announced

All 234 pairs on the Survival page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Welcome to Elderfield $17.99 1,334 87% 40k $720k (exactly $719,960) Chris Cote
holoVillage: Our Cozy Days $24.99 518 83% 16k $388k (exactly $388,345) Roboqlo
Enter The Backrooms older $9.99 986 87% 30k $296k (exactly $295,504) Justin Kroh
Sea Fantasy $14.99 585 86% 18k $263k (exactly $263,074) METASLA
Garage: Bad Dream Adventure older $19.90 364 97% 11k $217k (exactly $217,308) 作場金属製作所 Sakuba Metal Works, SmokymonkeyS
Old School older $14.99 442 83% 13k $199k (exactly $198,767) MDickie
Creature Crafter older $7.99 745 86% 22k $179k (exactly $178,576) Daniel Lochner
Dread X Collection 2 older $9.99 573 93% 17k $172k (exactly $171,728) DreadXP, David Szymanski, Torple Dook,… (DreadXP, David Szymanski, Torple Dook, Lovely Hellplace, Scythe Dev Team, Secret Cow Level, panstasz, Mahelyk, Daniel Mullins Games, Wither Studios, Akabaka, Vidas Salavejus, Wayward Preacher, John Szymanski, Bathysfear Labs, Abbey 'Scruncho' Smith)
Morels: The Hunt older $19.99 260 86% 7.8k $156k (exactly $155,922) Abrams Studios
硬币与仙人掌 (Coins & Wishpalm) $13.99 343 77% 10k $144k (exactly $143,957) Moshow Games
Dig Island · EA $14.99 282 86% 8.5k $127k (exactly $126,815) FiftyEight Studios
Cultivation Magic World · EA $12.99 276 78% 8.3k $108k (exactly $107,557) DMG Studio
Abyss Kitchen $11.99 202 89% 6.1k $73k (exactly $72,659) Pico Games
Deadline Escape · EA $4.99 433 84% 13k $65k (exactly $64,820) DeadlineEscape
Creature Keeper $14.99 101 67% 3.0k $45k (exactly $45,420) Fervir Games
OddFauna : Secret of the Terrabeast · EA $24.99 60 90% 1.8k $45k (exactly $44,982) North Channel

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.