Do I ship it?

Games › Shooter › Shooter + Wargame

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Wargame Shooter?

Shooter + Wargame

Of 118 developers who shipped a Wargame Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 237 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $1.1M, ×1759 the market median. Revenue is up 35% on the market; 237 games are announced against 55 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 35% on the market, 237 announced, ×4.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shooter + Wargame
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 118
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $898 → $628 → $2.8k → $599 → $899 → $748 (still earning) → $2.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shooter + Wargame: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 118
Bottom 30% $148 (exactly $148)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,166)
Top 25% $9.4k (exactly $9,418)
Top 5% $1.1M (exactly $1,104,832)
Developers, 2 yr 118
Released games 445
Announced 237
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 35% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Wargame
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Shooter, Wargame; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, FPS, Tactical
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 108,368 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $9.4k, 1 in 20 over $1.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 74 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 237 games are announced against 55 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair23 devs · median $9.8k · 17 announced
  2. + CollectathonFair69 devs · median $1.4k · 64 announced
  3. + VampiresFair38 devs · median $1.3k · 41 announced
  4. + Walking SimulatorFair68 devs · median $1.2k · 62 announced
  5. + IdlerFair70 devs · median $836 · 59 announced
  6. + Match 3Fair15 devs · median $719 · 5 announced
  7. + SnowFair22 devs · median $570 · 23 announced
  8. + Boss RushFair16 devs · median $537 · 20 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair85 devs · median $479 · 88 announced
  10. + ArcadeLong shot1,151 devs · median $419 · 1,332 announced
  11. + Score AttackLong shot372 devs · median $300 · 352 announced
  12. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced

All 229 pairs on the Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Squad 2020 · $217M WARDOGS 2026 · EA · $70M Bodycam 2024 · EA · $60M Verdun 2015 · $52M Foxhole 2022 · $43M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Squad older $39.99 180,505 82% 5.4M $217M (exactly $216,551,848) Offworld
WARDOGS · EA $39.99 58,250 81% 1.7M $70M (exactly $69,882,525) BULKHEAD
Bodycam · EA older $33.32 60,179 80% 1.8M $60M (exactly $60,154,928) Reissad Studio
Verdun older $59.99 28,967 87% 869k $52M (exactly $52,131,910) BlackMill Games
Foxhole older $29.99 47,330 79% 1.4M $43M (exactly $42,582,801) Siege Camp
Starship Troopers: Extermination $29.99 29,724 80% 892k $27M (exactly $26,742,683) Offworld
Isonzo older $39.99 14,434 85% 433k $17M (exactly $17,316,470) BlackMill Games
Holdfast: Nations At War older $19.99 26,624 90% 799k $16M (exactly $15,966,413) Anvil Game Studios
Six Days in Fallujah · EA older $39.99 13,012 79% 390k $16M (exactly $15,610,496) Highwire Games
Red Orchestra 2: Heroes of Stalingrad with Rising Storm older $19.99 24,876 93% 746k $15M (exactly $14,918,137) Tripwire Interactive
Gallipoli $29.99 4,015 78% 120k $3.6M (exactly $3,612,296) BlackMill Games
Cleared Hot · EA $17.99 3,934 96% 118k $2.1M (exactly $2,123,180) Not Knowing Corporation
Rising Front $14.99 4,057 88% 122k $1.8M (exactly $1,824,433) Sandstorm Studios Inc.
'83 · EA $29.99 1,228 65% 37k $1.1M (exactly $1,104,832) Blue Dot Games
Starship Troopers: Ultimate Bug War! $24.99 1,352 92% 41k $1.0M (exactly $1,013,594) Auroch Digital
近畿霊務局 - Kinki Spiritual Affairs Bureau $9.99 2,780 92% 83k $833k (exactly $833,166) Noto Muteki
Vietnam War · EA $14.99 1,704 84% 51k $766k (exactly $766,289) Thorium Game Lab
Heroes of Valor · EA $14.99 1,324 90% 40k $595k (exactly $595,403) Fancy Cat Interactive

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.