Do I ship it?

Games › Shooter › Shooter + Dating Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dating Sim Shooter?

Shooter + Dating Sim

Of 23 developers who shipped a Dating Sim Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 17 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $9.8k, ×16 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $4.8k. Revenue is up 30% on the market; 17 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 15.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 30% on the market, 17 announced, ×1.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shooter + Dating Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 23
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $39k → $61k → $405k → $19k → $32k → $10k → $9.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shooter + Dating Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 23
Bottom 30% $4.8k (exactly $4,790)
Median $9.8k (exactly $9,777)
Top 25% $58k (exactly $57,571)
Top 5% $276k (exactly $276,418)
Developers, 2 yr 23
Released games 94
Announced 17
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 30% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Dating Sim
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Shooter, Dating Sim; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action-Adventure, Character Customization
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Cute, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 13,978 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $4.8k, median $9.8k, 1 in 4 over $57k, 1 in 20 over $270k.

3 in 10 developers made under $4.8k. 6 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 17 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + CollectathonFair69 devs · median $1.4k · 64 announced
  2. + VampiresFair38 devs · median $1.3k · 41 announced
  3. + Walking SimulatorFair68 devs · median $1.2k · 62 announced
  4. + IdlerFair70 devs · median $836 · 59 announced
  5. + Match 3Fair15 devs · median $719 · 5 announced
  6. + SnowFair22 devs · median $570 · 23 announced
  7. + Boss RushFair16 devs · median $537 · 20 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair85 devs · median $479 · 88 announced
  9. + ArcadeLong shot1,151 devs · median $419 · 1,332 announced
  10. + Score AttackLong shot372 devs · median $300 · 352 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced
  12. + Character Action GamePoor odds14 devs · median $84k · 47 announced

All 229 pairs on the Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

ULTRAKILL 2020 · EA · $192M Neon White 2022 · $13M 魔女的夜宴 2023 · $10M Azur Lane Crosswave 2020 · $7.8M Winter Memories 2024 · $6.2M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ULTRAKILL · EA older $29.99 213,450 97% 6.4M $192M (exactly $192,040,965) Arsi "Hakita" Patala
Neon White older $24.99 17,259 97% 518k $13M (exactly $12,939,072) Angel Matrix
魔女的夜宴 older $34.99 9,664 98% 290k $10M (exactly $10,144,301) YUZUSOFT
Azur Lane Crosswave older $39.99 6,537 68% 196k $7.8M (exactly $7,842,439) IDEA FACTORY, COMPILE HEART, FELISTELLA
Winter Memories older $19.99 10,365 97% 311k $6.2M (exactly $6,215,890) Dojin Otome
Blood Trail · EA older $24.99 7,181 80% 215k $5.4M (exactly $5,383,596) Electrovore
Mirror older $1.99 72,623 96% 2.2M $4.3M (exactly $4,335,593) KAGAMI WORKS
SYNDUALITY Echo of Ada $39.99 3,303 40% 99k $4.0M (exactly $3,962,609) Game Studio Inc.
VR Kanojo / VRカノジョ older $49.99 1,767 76% 53k $2.6M (exactly $2,649,970) ILLUSION
Maitetsu:Pure Station older $24.99 3,151 96% 95k $2.4M (exactly $2,362,305) Lose
your wife $0.99 9,307 95% 279k $276k (exactly $276,418) HaHaHaGame
Sensual Adventures - Treasure Island · EA $29.99 303 81% 9.1k $273k (exactly $272,609) Puppetmaster3dx
Breach Protocol $14.99 149 69% 4.5k $67k (exactly $67,005) Entropy Digital Entertainment
Lust 'n Dead 🔞 $9.99 212 66% 6.4k $64k (exactly $63,536) Octo Games
Libertine: King of Hearts $19.99 96 85% 2.9k $58k (exactly $57,571) Hasnotalent Media
Lust Effect [18+] $14.99 124 66% 3.7k $56k (exactly $55,763) Dirty Adventures 🖤
LUST Eternal 🔞 $4.99 212 55% 6.4k $32k (exactly $31,736) Octo Games
JOI Lab VR 🔞 / 自慰ラボ $14.99 43 60% 1.3k $19k (exactly $19,337) Caulino
性感史莱姆派对（Slime Sexy Party） · EA $1.99 229 99% 6.9k $14k (exactly $13,671) HZ studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.