Do I ship it?

GamesImmersive SimImmersive Sim + Submarine

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Submarine Immersive Sim?

Immersive Sim + Submarine

Only 12 developers shipped a Submarine Immersive Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Modern Naval Warfare, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 20 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $960, ×0.6 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600. 20 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper, while revenue is up 175% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 175% on the market, 20 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Immersive Sim + Submarine
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.3k → $28k → $1.1k → $958 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Immersive Sim + Submarine: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $958 (exactly $958)
Top 25% $2.5k (exactly $2,545)
Top 5% $427k (exactly $426,529)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 41
Announced 20
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 175% on the market, supply 200% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Submarine
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Immersive Sim, Submarine
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 593 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $960, 1 in 4 over $2.5k, 1 in 20 over $420k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. All of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 20 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Immersive Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  2. + Trading Card GameStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  3. + MinigamesStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  4. + WesternStrong odds17 devs · median $4.4k · 14 announced
  5. + BoxingStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  6. + Job SimulatorFair152 devs · median $20k · 180 announced
  7. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  8. + Dating SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  9. + RomanceFair254 devs · median $12k · 266 announced
  10. + LGBTQ+Fair87 devs · median $11k · 93 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  12. + Split ScreenFair12 devs · median $6.0k · 14 announced

All 219 pairs on the Immersive Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Destroyer: The U-Boat Hunter older $29.99 852 73% 26k $767k (exactly $766,544) Iron Wolf Studio S.A.
IronWolf VR older $19.99 1,087 94% 33k $652k (exactly $651,874) Ionized Studios
Model Builder: Complete Edition older $19.99 1,058 74% 32k $634k (exactly $634,483) Moonlit S.A.
Modern Naval Warfare · EA $59.99 237 58% 7.1k $427k (exactly $426,529) Wave Ops
Dangerous Waters older $14.99 353 79% 11k $159k (exactly $158,744) Sonalysts
Crash Dive 2 older $11.99 233 95% 7.0k $84k (exactly $83,810) Panic Ensues Software
Sonar Shock older $7.99 224 80% 6.7k $54k (exactly $53,693) Raphael Bossniak
Beach Club Simulator 2024 older $8.99 185 78% 5.6k $50k (exactly $49,894) Catsupp Games
Zen Aquarium $4.99 302 93% 9.1k $45k (exactly $45,209) Astro Cat
UBOAT: The Silent Wolf VR older $19.99 69 59% 2.1k $41k (exactly $41,379) Titan GameZ
Dark of the Depths $4.99 17 70% 510 $2.5k (exactly $2,545) GhastlyVastly
7821 Akuji $8.99 4 100% 120 $1.1k (exactly $1,079) CatBiteStudios
Sub Optimal Co. $3.99 8 62% 240 $958 (exactly $958) It's A Sidegame
Scrap Diver $3.99 8 87% 240 $958 (exactly $958) BricchiLab
Depth Diver · EA $9.99 3 100% 90 $899 (exactly $899) Nerra Tolstoï, FLaV
Deep Saturation $2.99 7 42% 210 $628 (exactly $628) Panic Panda
The Great Ocean $9.99 2 100% 60 $599 (exactly $599) Actrio Studio
Aquascaping Designer $0.99 5 0% 150 $148 (exactly $148) Nipinfo

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.