Do I ship it?

GamesBuildingBuilding + Sailing

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Building Sailing game?

Building + Sailing

Only 13 developers shipped a Building Sailing game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Windrose, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 40 more are announced, ×5.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $52k, ×82 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $6.6k; 1 in 20 cleared $43M, ×68614 the market median. Revenue is up 25% on the market; 40 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 82.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 25% on the market, 40 announced, ×5.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Building + Sailing
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $74k → $82k (still earning) → $15k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Building + Sailing: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $6.6k (exactly $6,593)
Median $52k (exactly $51,782)
Top 25% $356k (exactly $356,108)
Top 5% $43M (exactly $43,089,332)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 37
Announced 40
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 25% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Sailing
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Building, Sailing
Price point
$12.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 54,088 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $6.6k, median $52k, 1 in 4 over $350k, 1 in 20 over $43M.

3 in 10 developers made under $6.6k. 6 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 40 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Building with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds66 devs · median $28k · 70 announced
  2. + CatsFair52 devs · median $4.5k · 59 announced
  3. + TabletopFair56 devs · median $1.9k · 58 announced
  4. + Grid-Based MovementFair50 devs · median $719 · 57 announced
  5. + Interactive FictionFair17 devs · median $449 · 20 announced
  6. + Vehicular CombatPoor odds14 devs · median $303k · 40 announced
  7. + JRPGPoor odds10 devs · median $89k · 20 announced
  8. + Dating SimPoor odds28 devs · median $85k · 61 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds112 devs · median $71k · 251 announced
  10. + Real-TimePoor odds14 devs · median $62k · 20 announced
  11. + CrimePoor odds13 devs · median $55k · 52 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds32 devs · median $51k · 75 announced

All 210 pairs on the Building page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Windrose · EA $29.99 47,893 86% 1.4M $43M (exactly $43,089,332) Kraken Express
Stormworks: Build and Rescue older $24.99 54,649 90% 1.6M $41M (exactly $40,970,355) Geometa
Aloft · EA $24.99 3,057 82% 92k $2.3M (exactly $2,291,833) Astrolabe Interactive Inc.
Voyagers of Nera · EA $29.99 2,022 83% 61k $1.8M (exactly $1,819,193) Treehouse Games
Port Royale 4 older $39.99 1,405 56% 42k $1.7M (exactly $1,685,578) Gaming Minds
NavalArt · EA older $19.99 2,362 90% 71k $1.4M (exactly $1,416,491) Rigidbody
Breakwaters: Crystal Tides · EA older $19.99 866 63% 26k $519k (exactly $519,340) Soaring Pixels Games
Forgotten Seas $24.99 475 75% 14k $356k (exactly $356,108) Pangea Game Studios
Escape The Pacific · EA older $14.99 719 66% 22k $323k (exactly $323,334) Gamers4Gamers Team
Ships 2017 older $19.99 156 32% 4.7k $94k (exactly $93,553) FragOut
Collector's Cove $19.99 136 86% 4.1k $82k (exactly $81,559) VoodooDuck
High Seas, High Profits! $14.99 165 86% 5.0k $74k (exactly $74,200) lexy.zip
ShipShaper: Falconeer Chronicles · EA $8.99 192 96% 5.8k $52k (exactly $51,782) Tomas Sala
U.N.P.O.C. Vessel of Opportunity $12.99 70 68% 2.1k $27k (exactly $27,279) Danny Ziemer
HEXSTORM: Tears of Arcadia $8.99 56 75% 1.7k $15k (exactly $15,103) Tearevo
Tidewrack $9.99 22 68% 660 $6.6k (exactly $6,593) OverLKD Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.