Do I ship it?

GamesSurvivalSurvival + Sailing

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sailing Survival game?

Survival + Sailing

Of 24 developers who shipped a Sailing Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 63 more are announced, ×5.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.6k, ×10 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $13M, ×22027 the market median. Revenue is up 365% on the market; 63 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 10.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 365% on the market, 63 announced, ×5.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival + Sailing
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $42k → $1.2k → $27k → $156k → $43k (still earning) → $6.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival + Sailing: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $1.3k (exactly $1,256)
Median $6.6k (exactly $6,593)
Top 25% $156k (exactly $156,496)
Top 5% $14M (exactly $13,832,947)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 64
Announced 63
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 365% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Sailing
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival, Sailing; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Crafting, Exploration, Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 67,503 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.3k, median $6.6k, 1 in 4 over $150k, 1 in 20 over $13M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.3k. 8 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 63 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Social DeductionFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  3. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $2.1k · 29 announced
  4. + CatsFair33 devs · median $1.2k · 34 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair77 devs · median $1.0k · 84 announced
  6. + IdlerFair96 devs · median $836 · 99 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair79 devs · median $807 · 90 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair101 devs · median $599 · 130 announced
  9. + DogsFair20 devs · median $535 · 19 announced
  10. + Martial ArtsLong shot19 devs · median $419 · 17 announced
  11. + Boomer ShooterLong shot39 devs · median $359 · 32 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced

All 234 pairs on the Survival page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Windrose · EA $29.99 47,893 86% 1.4M $43M (exactly $43,089,332) Kraken Express
Stormworks: Build and Rescue older $24.99 54,649 90% 1.6M $41M (exactly $40,970,355) Geometa
ATLAS · EA older $29.99 37,119 46% 1.1M $33M (exactly $33,395,964) Grapeshot Games, Instinct Games
The Last Caretaker · EA $34.99 13,178 86% 395k $14M (exactly $13,832,947) Channel37 Ltd
Aloft · EA $24.99 3,057 82% 92k $2.3M (exactly $2,291,833) Astrolabe Interactive Inc.
Sailwind · EA older $19.99 2,312 89% 69k $1.4M (exactly $1,386,506) Raw Lion Workshop
Salt 2: Shores of Gold $19.99 2,182 85% 65k $1.3M (exactly $1,308,545) Lavaboots Studios
Salt older $14.99 1,959 75% 59k $881k (exactly $880,962) Lavaboots Studios
Windbound older $19.99 1,026 60% 31k $615k (exactly $615,292) 5 Lives Studios
Breakwaters: Crystal Tides · EA older $19.99 866 63% 26k $519k (exactly $519,340) Soaring Pixels Games
Forgotten Seas $24.99 475 75% 14k $356k (exactly $356,108) Pangea Game Studios
Captain Bones : A Pirate's Journey $14.99 348 79% 10k $156k (exactly $156,496) World of Poly
Nautical Survival $7.99 179 97% 5.4k $43k (exactly $42,906) Idan Rooze
Sailing alone:Aftermath · EA $18.99 67 68% 2.0k $38k (exactly $38,170) MLStudio
U.N.P.O.C. Vessel of Opportunity $12.99 70 68% 2.1k $27k (exactly $27,279) Danny Ziemer
Mystical Maritime Adventure $8.99 54 77% 1.6k $15k (exactly $14,564) Ze_Yu, 烟熏渔

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.