Do I ship it?

GamesSailingSailing + Resource Management

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Resource Management Sailing game?

Sailing + Resource Management

Only 18 developers shipped a Resource Management Sailing game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Last Caretaker, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 55 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $8.5k, ×14 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $13M, ×22027 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 55 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 13.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 55 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sailing + Resource Management
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $27k → $69k → $2.3k (still earning) → $8.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sailing + Resource Management: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $2.3k (exactly $2,336)
Median $8.5k (exactly $8,544)
Top 25% $45k (exactly $45,205)
Top 5% $14M (exactly $13,832,947)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 39
Announced 55
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 160% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sailing
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Resource Management
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Sailing, Resource Management; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Management, Simulation, Automation
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 14,181 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.4k, median $8.5k, 1 in 4 over $45k, 1 in 20 over $13M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.4k. 7 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 55 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sailing with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + UnderwaterFair24 devs · median $3.9k · 30 announced
  2. + Base BuildingPoor odds9 devs · median $356k · 38 announced
  3. + Immersive SimPoor odds16 devs · median $69k · 42 announced
  4. + BuildingPoor odds13 devs · median $52k · 40 announced
  5. + SandboxPoor odds22 devs · median $45k · 73 announced
  6. + Co-opPoor odds14 devs · median $38k · 40 announced
  7. + Procedural GenerationPoor odds10 devs · median $27k · 40 announced
  8. + CraftingPoor odds26 devs · median $17k · 43 announced
  9. + Open WorldPoor odds48 devs · median $15k · 119 announced
  10. + Action RPGPoor odds18 devs · median $15k · 25 announced
  11. + SurvivalPoor odds24 devs · median $6.6k · 63 announced
  12. + Online Co-OpPoor odds13 devs · median $6.6k · 42 announced

All 47 pairs on the Sailing page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Last Caretaker · EA $34.99 13,178 86% 395k $14M (exactly $13,832,947) Channel37 Ltd
Port Royale 4 older $39.99 1,405 56% 42k $1.7M (exactly $1,685,578) Gaming Minds
Sailwind · EA older $19.99 2,312 89% 69k $1.4M (exactly $1,386,506) Raw Lion Workshop
Lighthouse Keeper older $11.99 336 81% 10k $121k (exactly $120,859) Stratera Games
High Seas, High Profits! $14.99 165 86% 5.0k $74k (exactly $74,200) lexy.zip
Following Seas · EA $14.99 153 76% 4.6k $69k (exactly $68,804) Whipstaff Games
Winds Of Trade older $11.99 154 61% 4.6k $55k (exactly $55,394) Rhombico Games
Profit Sea Incremental $4.99 327 79% 9.8k $49k (exactly $48,952) Monkey Cube
Global Magnates: Shipping Tycoon $12.99 116 64% 3.5k $45k (exactly $45,205) Aquila Chengdu
U.N.P.O.C. Vessel of Opportunity $12.99 70 68% 2.1k $27k (exactly $27,279) Danny Ziemer
HEXSTORM: Tears of Arcadia $8.99 56 75% 1.7k $15k (exactly $15,103) Tearevo
The Road To Harvest: Food From Across The Ocean $5.99 75 76% 2.3k $13k (exactly $13,478) MuccyGames
Storm Seas · EA $14.99 19 52% 570 $8.5k (exactly $8,544) Dclares Dev
Dockside Dreams – Fish & Cook Simulator $7.99 22 59% 660 $5.3k (exactly $5,273) C51 Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.