Do I ship it?

GamesSailingSailing + Strategy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sailing Strategy game?

Sailing + Strategy

Of 42 developers who shipped a Sailing Strategy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 72 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $83k, ×134 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 72 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 72 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sailing + Strategy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 42
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.0k → $4.5k → $5.1k → $1.6k → $14k → $899 → $2.2k (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sailing + Strategy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 42
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $719 (exactly $719)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $13,941)
Top 5% $84k (exactly $83,958)
Developers, 2 yr 42
Released games 118
Announced 72
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sailing
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Sailing, Strategy; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Simulation
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 2,354 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $720, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $83k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 7 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 72 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sailing with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + UnderwaterFair24 devs · median $3.9k · 30 announced
  2. + Base BuildingPoor odds9 devs · median $356k · 38 announced
  3. + Immersive SimPoor odds16 devs · median $69k · 42 announced
  4. + BuildingPoor odds13 devs · median $52k · 40 announced
  5. + SandboxPoor odds22 devs · median $45k · 73 announced
  6. + Co-opPoor odds14 devs · median $38k · 40 announced
  7. + Procedural GenerationPoor odds10 devs · median $27k · 40 announced
  8. + CraftingPoor odds26 devs · median $17k · 43 announced
  9. + Open WorldPoor odds48 devs · median $15k · 119 announced
  10. + Action RPGPoor odds18 devs · median $15k · 25 announced
  11. + Resource ManagementPoor odds18 devs · median $8.5k · 55 announced
  12. + SurvivalPoor odds24 devs · median $6.6k · 63 announced

All 47 pairs on the Sailing page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Naval Action older $19.99 10,187 52% 306k $6.1M (exactly $6,109,144) Bermuda Computer Club
Sailing Era older $24.99 4,565 78% 137k $3.4M (exactly $3,422,380) GY Games
Sid Meier's Pirates! older $9.99 6,198 94% 186k $1.9M (exactly $1,857,541) Firaxis Games
Ultimate Admiral: Age of Sail older $29.99 2,007 78% 60k $1.8M (exactly $1,805,698) Game-Labs
Port Royale 4 older $39.99 1,405 56% 42k $1.7M (exactly $1,685,578) Gaming Minds
NavalArt · EA older $19.99 2,362 90% 71k $1.4M (exactly $1,416,491) Rigidbody
Rogue Waters $29.99 955 75% 29k $859k (exactly $859,214) Ice Code Games
Windward older $9.99 2,668 79% 80k $800k (exactly $799,600) Tasharen Entertainment Inc.
Horizon's Gate older $19.99 1,213 94% 36k $727k (exactly $727,436) Rad Codex
Blood and Gold: Caribbean! older $19.99 1,188 59% 36k $712k (exactly $712,444) Snowbird Games
Rise of Piracy · EA $15.99 520 77% 16k $249k (exactly $249,444) IrishJohnGames
Sail the Seas $19.99 140 76% 4.2k $84k (exactly $83,958) Viking Game Studio
High Seas, High Profits! $14.99 165 86% 5.0k $74k (exactly $74,200) lexy.zip
Ile d'Or · EA $14.99 164 88% 4.9k $74k (exactly $73,751) あとらそふと
Terror of the Seven Seas $14.99 108 78% 3.2k $49k (exactly $48,568) Cutthroat Games
Pirates Outlaws 2: Heritage · EA $14.99 105 60% 3.2k $47k (exactly $47,218) Fabled Game
Global Magnates: Shipping Tycoon $12.99 116 64% 3.5k $45k (exactly $45,205) Aquila Chengdu
HEXSTORM: Tears of Arcadia $8.99 56 75% 1.7k $15k (exactly $15,103) Tearevo
The Pirate: Republic of Nassau $19.99 25 68% 750 $15k (exactly $14,992) Home Net Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.