Do I ship it?

GamesSailingSailing + Simulation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sailing Simulation game?

Sailing + Simulation

Of 63 developers who shipped a Sailing Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 138 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.6k, ×8.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.5M, ×2432 the market median. Revenue is up 70% on the market; 138 games are announced against 36 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 70% on the market, 138 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sailing + Simulation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 63
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $31k → $62k → $5.0k → $46k → $13k → $54k → $2.3k (still earning) → $719 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sailing + Simulation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 63
Bottom 30% $1.3k (exactly $1,256)
Median $5.6k (exactly $5,571)
Top 25% $74k (exactly $73,588)
Top 5% $1.5M (exactly $1,527,181)
Developers, 2 yr 63
Released games 174
Announced 138
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 70% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sailing
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Sailing, Simulation; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Adventure, Open World
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 28,200 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.3k, median $5.6k, 1 in 4 over $73k, 1 in 20 over $1.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.3k. 6 in 10 of the 28 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 138 games are announced against 36 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sailing with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + UnderwaterFair24 devs · median $3.9k · 30 announced
  2. + Base BuildingPoor odds9 devs · median $356k · 38 announced
  3. + Immersive SimPoor odds16 devs · median $69k · 42 announced
  4. + BuildingPoor odds13 devs · median $52k · 40 announced
  5. + SandboxPoor odds22 devs · median $45k · 73 announced
  6. + Co-opPoor odds14 devs · median $38k · 40 announced
  7. + Procedural GenerationPoor odds10 devs · median $27k · 40 announced
  8. + CraftingPoor odds26 devs · median $17k · 43 announced
  9. + Open WorldPoor odds48 devs · median $15k · 119 announced
  10. + Action RPGPoor odds18 devs · median $15k · 25 announced
  11. + Resource ManagementPoor odds18 devs · median $8.5k · 55 announced
  12. + SurvivalPoor odds24 devs · median $6.6k · 63 announced

All 47 pairs on the Sailing page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DREDGE older $24.99 47,624 95% 1.4M $36M (exactly $35,703,713) Black Salt Games
The Last Caretaker · EA $34.99 13,178 86% 395k $14M (exactly $13,832,947) Channel37 Ltd
Naval Action older $19.99 10,187 52% 306k $6.1M (exactly $6,109,144) Bermuda Computer Club
Sailing Era older $24.99 4,565 78% 137k $3.4M (exactly $3,422,380) GY Games
Cat Goes Fishing older $6.99 15,431 94% 463k $3.2M (exactly $3,235,881) Cat5Games
Fishing: North Atlantic - Enhanced Edition older $34.99 2,535 76% 76k $2.7M (exactly $2,660,990) Misc Games
Pixel Piracy older $14.99 5,713 65% 171k $2.6M (exactly $2,569,136) Vitali Kirpu
Aloft · EA $24.99 3,057 82% 92k $2.3M (exactly $2,291,833) Astrolabe Interactive Inc.
Seafarer: The Ship Sim · EA $34.99 1,921 64% 58k $2.0M (exactly $2,016,474) astragon Development
Ultimate Admiral: Age of Sail older $29.99 2,007 78% 60k $1.8M (exactly $1,805,698) Game-Labs
Finnish Cottage Simulator · EA $14.99 3,396 93% 102k $1.5M (exactly $1,527,181) RANELA GAMES
Spilled! $5.99 4,905 93% 147k $881k (exactly $881,428) Lente
WILL: Follow The Light $24.99 527 73% 16k $395k (exactly $395,092) TomorrowHead Studio
Forgotten Seas $24.99 475 75% 14k $356k (exactly $356,108) Pangea Game Studios
Rise of Piracy · EA $15.99 520 77% 16k $249k (exactly $249,444) IrishJohnGames
Professional Ship Simulator · EA $36.99 81 62% 2.4k $90k (exactly $89,886) SWE Systems
Sail the Seas $19.99 140 76% 4.2k $84k (exactly $83,958) Viking Game Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.