Do I ship it?

GamesRTSRTS + Turn-Based Tactics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Turn-Based Tactics RTS?

RTS + Turn-Based Tactics

Of 35 developers who shipped a Turn-Based Tactics RTS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 67 more are announced, ×4.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.5k, ×1.7 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $750; 1 in 20 cleared $5.6M, ×3746 the market median. Revenue is up 110% on the market; 67 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 110% on the market, 67 announced, ×4.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RTS + Turn-Based Tactics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 35
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $297 → $3.0k → $2.4k → $31k → $750 → $4.2k → $1.9k (still earning) → $3.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RTS + Turn-Based Tactics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 35
Bottom 30% $750 (exactly $750)
Median $2.5k (exactly $2,514)
Top 25% $34k (exactly $33,566)
Top 5% $5.6M (exactly $5,611,465)
Developers, 2 yr 35
Released games 152
Announced 67
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 110% on the market, supply 30% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 22%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

RTS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
RTS, Turn-Based Tactics; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy, Simulation
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 23,112 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $750, median $2.5k, 1 in 4 over $33k, 1 in 20 over $5.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $750. 7 in 10 of the 26 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 67 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RTS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair12 devs · median $64k · 13 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair16 devs · median $2.6k · 14 announced
  3. + HorrorFair20 devs · median $2.4k · 27 announced
  4. + NavalFair15 devs · median $2.4k · 21 announced
  5. + TabletopFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  6. + SportsLong shot19 devs · median $861 · 9 announced
  7. + PuzzleLong shot48 devs · median $479 · 40 announced
  8. + World War IIPoor odds23 devs · median $105k · 38 announced
  9. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds28 devs · median $64k · 41 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds45 devs · median $35k · 100 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds87 devs · median $31k · 159 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds108 devs · median $30k · 180 announced

All 149 pairs on the RTS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Total War: ROME II - Emperor Edition older $29.99 54,547 87% 1.6M $49M (exactly $49,075,936) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive
Company of Heroes 3 older $59.99 24,516 59% 735k $44M (exactly $44,121,445) Relic Entertainment
Wandering Sword older $24.99 37,034 94% 1.1M $28M (exactly $27,764,390) The Swordman Studio
Total War: EMPIRE – Definitive Edition older $19.99 21,302 89% 639k $13M (exactly $12,774,809) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Total War: ROME REMASTERED older $29.99 12,627 77% 379k $11M (exactly $11,360,512) Creative Assembly, Feral Interactive
Total War: NAPOLEON – Definitive Edition older $19.99 18,004 91% 540k $11M (exactly $10,796,999) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac))
Romance of the Three Kingdoms XIII older $59.99 5,828 57% 175k $10M (exactly $10,488,652) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Warhammer 40,000: Gladius - Relics of War older $39.99 8,148 82% 244k $9.8M (exactly $9,775,156) Proxy Studios
Mechabellum $14.99 17,856 84% 536k $8.0M (exactly $8,029,843) Game River
ROMANCE OF THE THREE KINGDOMS 8 REMAKE $59.99 3,118 49% 94k $5.6M (exactly $5,611,465) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Knightica $14.99 1,136 74% 34k $511k (exactly $510,859) Mad Mango Games
Moon Corona · EA $13.99 210 82% 6.3k $88k (exactly $88,137) 不倒龙工作室, Budaolong Studio
Bellfortis $19.99 141 90% 4.2k $85k (exactly $84,558) Rake in Grass
Dust Raiders $15.99 160 64% 4.8k $77k (exactly $76,752) Vixa Games
Screeps: Arena $19.99 105 82% 3.2k $63k (exactly $62,968) Screeps, LLC
巴哈姆特1-REMAKE(BAHAMUT1-REMAKE) $9.99 170 95% 5.1k $51k (exactly $50,949) 王韋
Dice Tavern: Farkle Roguelike $9.99 112 90% 3.4k $34k (exactly $33,566) Cavi Studio
Open Wheel Manager 2 $9.99 104 72% 3.1k $31k (exactly $31,169) Paprikash Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.