Do I ship it?

Games › RTS › RTS + Turn-Based Strategy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Turn-Based Strategy RTS?

RTS + Turn-Based Strategy

Of 62 developers who shipped a Turn-Based Strategy RTS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 83 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×1.3 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $910k, ×610 the market median. Revenue is up 55% on the market; 83 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 55% on the market, 83 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RTS + Turn-Based Strategy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 62
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $15k → $108k → $9.0k → $4.4k → $900 → $2.6k → $1.9k (still earning) → $1.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RTS + Turn-Based Strategy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 62
Bottom 30% $600 (exactly $600)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,948)
Top 25% $34k (exactly $33,566)
Top 5% $913k (exactly $913,196)
Developers, 2 yr 62
Released games 222
Announced 83
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.50

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 55% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

RTS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
RTS, Turn-Based Strategy; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Simulation, Tactical
Price point
$9.50 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.50.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 28,591 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $33k, 1 in 20 over $910k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 37 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 83 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RTS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair12 devs · median $64k · 13 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair16 devs · median $2.6k · 14 announced
  3. + HorrorFair20 devs · median $2.4k · 27 announced
  4. + NavalFair15 devs · median $2.4k · 21 announced
  5. + TabletopFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  6. + SportsLong shot19 devs · median $861 · 9 announced
  7. + PuzzleLong shot48 devs · median $479 · 40 announced
  8. + World War IIPoor odds23 devs · median $105k · 38 announced
  9. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds28 devs · median $64k · 41 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds45 devs · median $35k · 100 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds87 devs · median $31k · 159 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds108 devs · median $30k · 180 announced

All 149 pairs on the RTS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Total War: WARHAMMER III 2022 · $189M Total War: WARHAMMER II 2017 · $153M Total War: THREE KINGDOMS 2019 · $76M Total War: WARHAMMER 2016 · $58M Total War: ROME II - Emperor Edition 2013 · $49M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Total War: WARHAMMER III older $59.99 104,822 71% 3.1M $189M (exactly $188,648,153) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive
Total War: WARHAMMER II older $59.99 85,134 92% 2.6M $153M (exactly $153,215,660) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Total War: THREE KINGDOMS older $39.99 63,110 82% 1.9M $76M (exactly $75,713,067) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Total War: WARHAMMER older $59.99 32,105 79% 963k $58M (exactly $57,779,368) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (L… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Linux), Feral Interactive (Mac))
Total War: ROME II - Emperor Edition older $29.99 54,547 87% 1.6M $49M (exactly $49,075,936) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive
Company of Heroes 3 older $59.99 24,516 59% 735k $44M (exactly $44,121,445) Relic Entertainment
Wandering Sword older $24.99 37,034 94% 1.1M $28M (exactly $27,764,390) The Swordman Studio
ENDLESS Space™ 2 older $39.99 17,280 83% 518k $21M (exactly $20,730,816) AMPLITUDE Studios
WARNO older $39.99 14,502 80% 435k $17M (exactly $17,398,049) Eugen Systems
Total War: MEDIEVAL II – Definitive Edition older $19.99 27,319 95% 820k $16M (exactly $16,383,204) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Mechabellum $14.99 17,856 84% 536k $8.0M (exactly $8,029,843) Game River
ROMANCE OF THE THREE KINGDOMS 8 REMAKE $59.99 3,118 49% 94k $5.6M (exactly $5,611,465) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Nordhold $19.99 2,875 87% 86k $1.7M (exactly $1,724,137) StunForge
Company of Heroes 3: Final Stand $29.99 1,015 49% 30k $913k (exactly $913,196) Relic Entertainment
Border Pioneer $14.99 1,675 86% 50k $753k (exactly $753,248) Yahzj Games
Knightica $14.99 1,136 74% 34k $511k (exactly $510,859) Mad Mango Games
Strategos · EA $24.99 233 85% 7.0k $175k (exactly $174,680) Strategos Games
Defender of the Crown: The Legend Returns $19.99 216 66% 6.5k $130k (exactly $129,535) Black Tower Basement
King's Orders $14.99 257 70% 7.7k $116k (exactly $115,573) AFTERLIFE👻
Moon Corona · EA $13.99 210 82% 6.3k $88k (exactly $88,137) 不倒龙工作室, Budaolong Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.