Do I ship it?

Games › RTS › RTS + Turn-Based Combat

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Turn-Based Combat RTS?

RTS + Turn-Based Combat

Only 10 developers shipped a Turn-Based Combat RTS in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Demon Lord: Just a Block, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 29 more are announced, ×5.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.1k, ×4.1 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $800k, ×537 the market median. Revenue is up 545% on the market; 29 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 545% on the market, 29 announced, ×5.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RTS + Turn-Based Combat
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $108k → $600 → $6.1k
Outcomes for RTS + Turn-Based Combat: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Median $6.1k (exactly $6,110)
Top 25% $19k (exactly $19,162)
Top 5% $805k (exactly $804,730)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 61
Announced 29
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 545% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 31%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

RTS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Turn-Based Combat
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
RTS, Turn-Based Combat
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 8 games average 93% positive over 2,480 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $6.1k, 1 in 4 over $19k, 1 in 20 over $800k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 8 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 29 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RTS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair12 devs · median $64k · 13 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair16 devs · median $2.6k · 14 announced
  3. + HorrorFair20 devs · median $2.4k · 27 announced
  4. + NavalFair15 devs · median $2.4k · 21 announced
  5. + TabletopFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  6. + SportsLong shot19 devs · median $861 · 9 announced
  7. + PuzzleLong shot48 devs · median $479 · 40 announced
  8. + World War IIPoor odds23 devs · median $105k · 38 announced
  9. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds28 devs · median $64k · 41 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds45 devs · median $35k · 100 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds87 devs · median $31k · 159 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds108 devs · median $30k · 180 announced

All 149 pairs on the RTS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Wandering Sword 2023 · $28M Total War: ROME REMASTERED 2021 · $11M Warhammer 40,000: Gladius - Relics of War 2018 · $9.8M Port Royale 4 2020 · $1.7M Screeps: World 2016 · $1.2M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Wandering Sword older $24.99 37,034 94% 1.1M $28M (exactly $27,764,390) The Swordman Studio
Total War: ROME REMASTERED older $29.99 12,627 77% 379k $11M (exactly $11,360,512) Creative Assembly, Feral Interactive
Warhammer 40,000: Gladius - Relics of War older $39.99 8,148 82% 244k $9.8M (exactly $9,775,156) Proxy Studios
Port Royale 4 older $39.99 1,405 56% 42k $1.7M (exactly $1,685,578) Gaming Minds
Screeps: World older $19.99 1,934 86% 58k $1.2M (exactly $1,159,820) Screeps, LLC
Combat Mission Shock Force 2 older $59.99 624 80% 19k $1.1M (exactly $1,123,013) Battlefront
Demon Lord: Just a Block $12.99 2,065 96% 62k $805k (exactly $804,730) YuWave
Big Bia older $14.99 1,296 69% 39k $583k (exactly $582,811) Pixel House Games
Winter Falling: Battle Tactics · EA older $14.99 448 90% 13k $201k (exactly $201,466) Rarykos, 7A Games
Dust Fleet older $19.99 193 76% 5.8k $116k (exactly $115,742) Orbiting Disco
Moon Corona · EA $13.99 210 82% 6.3k $88k (exactly $88,137) 不倒龙工作室, Budaolong Studio
Religion inc. $4.99 128 72% 3.8k $19k (exactly $19,162) GameFirst
Beyond the Grove · EA $14.99 18 77% 540 $8.1k (exactly $8,095) Not a Duck
Fadedlands: The Reckless Squad $5.99 34 97% 1.0k $6.1k (exactly $6,110) ForindGames
101st Airborne in Normandy $4.99 15 60% 450 $2.2k (exactly $2,246) Interactive Simulations
Rename the History $4.99 8 37% 240 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) Codime Dev
Iron Graves $9.99 2 100% 60 $599 (exactly $599) Commoditech
Tower Offense $3.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Malte Lehmann, Johanna Josupeit, Tom En… (Malte Lehmann, Johanna Josupeit, Tom Engmann, Philipp Siemoneit)
Battle of Banners $3.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Potato corporation

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.