Do I ship it?

GamesRTSRTS + Trading Card Game

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Trading Card Game RTS?

RTS + Trading Card Game

Only 8 developers shipped a paid Trading Card Game RTS in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, It's time, Your Majesty, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 4 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 17 more are announced, ×5.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $90 against a market of $1.5k. 17 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 170% on the market, 17 announced, ×5.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RTS + Trading Card Game
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for RTS + Trading Card Game: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $90 (exactly $90)
Top 25% $7.2k (exactly $7,194)
Top 5% $16k (exactly $16,147)
Developers, 2 yr 8
Released games 27
Announced 17
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 170% on the market, supply 40% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 44%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

RTS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Trading Card Game
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
RTS, Trading Card Game
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 69% positive over 748 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $90, 1 in 4 over $7.1k, 1 in 20 over $16k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 17 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RTS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair12 devs · median $64k · 13 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair16 devs · median $2.6k · 14 announced
  3. + HorrorFair20 devs · median $2.4k · 27 announced
  4. + NavalFair15 devs · median $2.4k · 21 announced
  5. + TabletopFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  6. + SportsLong shot19 devs · median $861 · 9 announced
  7. + PuzzleLong shot48 devs · median $479 · 40 announced
  8. + World War IIPoor odds23 devs · median $105k · 38 announced
  9. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds28 devs · median $64k · 41 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds45 devs · median $35k · 100 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds87 devs · median $31k · 159 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds108 devs · median $30k · 180 announced

All 149 pairs on the RTS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Control Craft 2 older $4.99 274 72% 8.2k $41k (exactly $41,018) Cristian Manolachi, Atomic Fabrik
Control Craft 3 older $4.99 235 73% 7.1k $35k (exactly $35,180) Cristian Manolachi, Atomic Fabrik
九州风流 · EA older $17.99 38 60% 1.1k $21k (exactly $20,509) GB
It's time, Your Majesty $6.99 77 64% 2.3k $16k (exactly $16,147) String studio
Soul•Apocalypto $11.99 20 80% 600 $7.2k (exactly $7,194) 卜乙冈(Ploygon)
Bacon Tales - Between Pigs and Wolves older $1.99 63 61% 1.9k $3.8k (exactly $3,761) Uruca Game Studio
DIMENSION RANGER $9.50 12 83% 360 $3.4k (exactly $3,420) 游际线
Emperor Kingdom older $4.99 11 27% 330 $1.6k (exactly $1,647) Carnivore Games
Sweet Forest Guardian older $1.99 17 47% 510 $1.0k (exactly $1,015) King Kong
Mage of Tempest Castle $2.99 1 100% 30 $90 (exactly $90) Donnie Lee
考试 Exam $1.99 1 100% 30 $60 (exactly $60) Timothy
Paper Mages $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Gently Giant LLC
怪物复仇卡牌 MONSTER REVENGE CARDS $5.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Zurey
黑帆王座·Galactic Loadout $0.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Pocket Forge

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.