Do I ship it?

Games › RTS › RTS + Tower Defense

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Tower Defense RTS?

RTS + Tower Defense

Of 232 developers who shipped a Tower Defense RTS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 347 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×0.8 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $670k, ×454 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 347 games are announced against 111 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 347 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RTS + Tower Defense
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 232
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $959 → $2.2k → $898 → $1.9k → $1.3k → $1.7k → $899 (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RTS + Tower Defense: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 232
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $12,887)
Top 5% $680k (exactly $679,978)
Developers, 2 yr 232
Released games 663
Announced 347
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

RTS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Tower Defense
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
RTS, Tower Defense; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Base Building, Building
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 59,883 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $670k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 8 in 10 of the 140 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 347 games are announced against 111 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RTS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair12 devs · median $64k · 13 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair16 devs · median $2.6k · 14 announced
  3. + HorrorFair20 devs · median $2.4k · 27 announced
  4. + NavalFair15 devs · median $2.4k · 21 announced
  5. + TabletopFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  6. + SportsLong shot19 devs · median $861 · 9 announced
  7. + PuzzleLong shot48 devs · median $479 · 40 announced
  8. + World War IIPoor odds23 devs · median $105k · 38 announced
  9. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds28 devs · median $64k · 41 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds45 devs · median $35k · 100 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds87 devs · median $31k · 159 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds108 devs · median $30k · 180 announced

All 149 pairs on the RTS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Total War: WARHAMMER III 2022 · $189M They Are Billions 2019 · $42M The Riftbreaker 2021 · $20M Diplomacy is Not an Option 2024 · $9.8M Outpost: Infinity Siege 2024 · $8.7M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Total War: WARHAMMER III older $59.99 104,822 71% 3.1M $189M (exactly $188,648,153) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive
They Are Billions older $29.99 46,223 85% 1.4M $42M (exactly $41,586,833) Numantian Games
The Riftbreaker older $29.99 22,127 90% 664k $20M (exactly $19,907,662) EXOR Studios
Diplomacy is Not an Option $29.99 10,904 85% 327k $9.8M (exactly $9,810,329) Door 407
Outpost: Infinity Siege older $24.99 11,636 65% 349k $8.7M (exactly $8,723,509) Team Ranger
Starship Troopers: Terran Command older $29.99 9,214 87% 276k $8.3M (exactly $8,289,836) The Artistocrats
Age of Darkness: Final Stand $27.99 9,486 74% 285k $8.0M (exactly $7,965,394) PlaySide
Mindustry older $9.99 24,608 95% 738k $7.4M (exactly $7,375,018) AnukenDev
Stronghold Crusader: Definitive Edition $19.99 10,627 92% 319k $6.4M (exactly $6,373,012) Firefly Studios
Bad North: Jotunn Edition older $14.99 12,344 93% 370k $5.6M (exactly $5,551,097) Plausible Concept, Oskar Stålberg
The King is Watching $14.99 9,006 88% 270k $4.0M (exactly $4,049,998) Hypnohead
Becastled $19.99 5,349 81% 160k $3.2M (exactly $3,207,795) Mana Potion Studios
Tower Dominion $17.49 5,117 85% 154k $2.7M (exactly $2,684,890) Parallel 45 Games
Lessaria: Fantasy Kingdom Sim $24.90 2,938 77% 88k $2.2M (exactly $2,194,686) Rockbee Team
Nordhold $19.99 2,875 87% 86k $1.7M (exactly $1,724,137) StunForge
EverSiege: Untold Ages $19.99 1,906 68% 57k $1.1M (exactly $1,143,028) Tindalos Interactive
Border Pioneer $14.99 1,675 86% 50k $753k (exactly $753,248) Yahzj Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.