Do I ship it?

Games › RTS › RTS + Top-Down Shooter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Top-Down Shooter RTS?

RTS + Top-Down Shooter

Of 28 developers who shipped a Top-Down Shooter RTS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 48 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $750, ×0.5 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $59. 48 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper, while revenue is up 200% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 200% on the market, 48 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RTS + Top-Down Shooter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 28
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.9k → $4.4k → $270 → $537 → $3.1k → $2.5k (still earning) → $449 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RTS + Top-Down Shooter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 28
Bottom 30% $59 (exactly $59)
Median $748 (exactly $748)
Top 25% $5.3k (exactly $5,277)
Top 5% $278k (exactly $278,408)
Developers, 2 yr 28
Released games 90
Announced 48
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 200% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

RTS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Top-Down Shooter
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
RTS, Top-Down Shooter; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Combat, Real Time Tactics
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 13,466 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $59, median $750, 1 in 4 over $5.2k, 1 in 20 over $270k.

3 in 10 developers made under $59. 9 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 48 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RTS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair12 devs · median $64k · 13 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair16 devs · median $2.6k · 14 announced
  3. + HorrorFair20 devs · median $2.4k · 27 announced
  4. + NavalFair15 devs · median $2.4k · 21 announced
  5. + TabletopFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  6. + SportsLong shot19 devs · median $861 · 9 announced
  7. + PuzzleLong shot48 devs · median $479 · 40 announced
  8. + World War IIPoor odds23 devs · median $105k · 38 announced
  9. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds28 devs · median $64k · 41 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds45 devs · median $35k · 100 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds87 devs · median $31k · 159 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds108 devs · median $30k · 180 announced

All 149 pairs on the RTS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Call to Arms - Gates of Hell: Ostfront 2021 · $34M Aliens: Dark Descent 2023 · $18M Door Kickers 2: Task Force North 2025 · $9.2M Door Kickers 2014 · $4.8M Taur 2020 · $1.5M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Call to Arms - Gates of Hell: Ostfront older $34.99 32,183 85% 965k $34M (exactly $33,782,495) Barbedwire Studios, Digitalmindsoft
Aliens: Dark Descent older $39.99 15,310 87% 459k $18M (exactly $18,367,407) Tindalos Interactive
Door Kickers 2: Task Force North $24.99 12,324 96% 370k $9.2M (exactly $9,239,303) KillHouse Games
Door Kickers older $19.99 8,041 94% 241k $4.8M (exactly $4,822,188) KillHouse Games
Taur older $24.99 2,011 79% 60k $1.5M (exactly $1,507,647) Echo Entertainment
Cavalry Girls older $11.99 1,877 88% 56k $675k (exactly $675,157) 中子星游戏研究所
Trench Lord: Eastern Front $11.99 774 83% 23k $278k (exactly $278,408) Tracer Studio, LING YUN CO.,LTD.
PROHIBEAST $34.99 121 57% 3.6k $127k (exactly $127,014) SUPER AC
Artificial Extinction 2 $19.99 113 77% 3.4k $68k (exactly $67,766) 100Hr Games Inc
Frontline Crisis older $5.99 348 87% 10k $63k (exactly $62,536) BCQT
INSANIO $9.99 48 66% 1.4k $14k (exactly $14,386) somebody
Status One $14.99 30 73% 900 $13k (exactly $13,491) LastCall Studio
Just Move:Clean City Messy Battle $15.99 11 45% 330 $5.3k (exactly $5,277) daminggede
Just Move Fall Dungeon Endless Abyss $15.99 8 50% 240 $3.8k (exactly $3,838) daminggede
Territorial Conquest $4.99 22 50% 660 $3.3k (exactly $3,293) Uğur CAN
Dark Erosion: Endless Siege $6.99 15 80% 450 $3.1k (exactly $3,146) LaoLiang

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.