Do I ship it?

Games › RTS › RTS + Tactical

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Tactical RTS?

RTS + Tactical

Of 276 developers who shipped a Tactical RTS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 494 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.6k, ×1.8 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $2.0M, ×1376 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 494 games are announced against 141 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 494 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RTS + Tactical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 276
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.0k → $2.6k → $5.4k → $5.5k → $2.6k → $5.9k → $1.8k (still earning) → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RTS + Tactical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 276
Bottom 30% $420 (exactly $420)
Median $2.6k (exactly $2,637)
Top 25% $33k (exactly $32,735)
Top 5% $2.1M (exactly $2,061,213)
Developers, 2 yr 276
Released games 926
Announced 494
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.90

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

RTS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Tactical
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
RTS, Tactical; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Real Time Tactics, Simulation
Price point
$9.90 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.90.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 122,846 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $420, median $2.6k, 1 in 4 over $32k, 1 in 20 over $2.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $420. 7 in 10 of the 164 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 494 games are announced against 141 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RTS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair12 devs · median $64k · 13 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair16 devs · median $2.6k · 14 announced
  3. + HorrorFair20 devs · median $2.4k · 27 announced
  4. + NavalFair15 devs · median $2.4k · 21 announced
  5. + TabletopFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  6. + SportsLong shot19 devs · median $861 · 9 announced
  7. + PuzzleLong shot48 devs · median $479 · 40 announced
  8. + World War IIPoor odds23 devs · median $105k · 38 announced
  9. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds28 devs · median $64k · 41 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds45 devs · median $35k · 100 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds87 devs · median $31k · 159 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds108 devs · median $30k · 180 announced

All 149 pairs on the RTS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Hearts of Iron IV 2016 · $412M Total War: WARHAMMER III 2022 · $189M Age of Empires II: Definitive Edition 2019 · $167M Total War: WARHAMMER II 2017 · $153M Total War: THREE KINGDOMS 2019 · $76M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hearts of Iron IV older $49.99 274,901 90% 8.2M $412M (exactly $412,269,030) Paradox Development Studio
Total War: WARHAMMER III older $59.99 104,822 71% 3.1M $189M (exactly $188,648,153) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive
Age of Empires II: Definitive Edition older $34.99 158,931 94% 4.8M $167M (exactly $166,829,871) World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, Captur… (World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, CaptureAge, Tantalus Media, Wicked Witch, Feral Interactive)
Total War: WARHAMMER II older $59.99 85,134 92% 2.6M $153M (exactly $153,215,660) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Total War: THREE KINGDOMS older $39.99 63,110 82% 1.9M $76M (exactly $75,713,067) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Total War: WARHAMMER older $59.99 32,105 79% 963k $58M (exactly $57,779,368) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (L… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Linux), Feral Interactive (Mac))
Northgard: Definitive Edition older $34.99 54,478 85% 1.6M $57M (exactly $57,185,557) Shiro Games
Age of Empires II (Retired) older $19.99 84,818 95% 2.5M $51M (exactly $50,865,355) Skybox Labs, Hidden Path Entertainment,… (Skybox Labs, Hidden Path Entertainment, Ensemble Studios, Forgotten Empires)
Total War: ROME II - Emperor Edition older $29.99 54,547 87% 1.6M $49M (exactly $49,075,936) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive
Company of Heroes 3 older $59.99 24,516 59% 735k $44M (exactly $44,121,445) Relic Entertainment
Broken Arrow $49.99 25,924 55% 778k $39M (exactly $38,878,223) Steel Balalaika
Warhammer 40,000: Dawn of War - Definitive Edition $29.99 12,286 85% 369k $11M (exactly $11,053,714) Relic Entertainment
Diplomacy is Not an Option $29.99 10,904 85% 327k $9.8M (exactly $9,810,329) Door 407
Door Kickers 2: Task Force North $24.99 12,324 96% 370k $9.2M (exactly $9,239,303) KillHouse Games
Mechabellum $14.99 17,856 84% 536k $8.0M (exactly $8,029,843) Game River
Age of Darkness: Final Stand $27.99 9,486 74% 285k $8.0M (exactly $7,965,394) PlaySide
ROMANCE OF THE THREE KINGDOMS 8 REMAKE $59.99 3,118 49% 94k $5.6M (exactly $5,611,465) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Age of History 3 $9.99 18,102 85% 543k $5.4M (exactly $5,425,169) Łukasz Jakowski
The King is Watching $14.99 9,006 88% 270k $4.0M (exactly $4,049,998) Hypnohead
Master of Command $29.99 3,840 92% 115k $3.5M (exactly $3,454,848) Armchair Interactive

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.