Should I ship a Swordplay RTS?
RTS + Swordplay
Only 12 developers shipped a Swordplay RTS in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Sengoku Voxel Castle With Zundamon, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 16 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $300, ×0.2 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50. 16 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper, while revenue is down 100% on the market.
| Bottom 30% | $0 (exactly $0) |
|---|---|
| Median | $300 (exactly $300) |
| Top 25% | $539 (exactly $539) |
| Top 5% | $41k (exactly $41,308) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 12 |
| Released games | 28 |
| Announced | 16 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $8.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 30% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- RTS, Swordplay; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Real Time Tactics, Tower Defense, Sandbox
- Price point
- $8.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Colorful, Cute
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.
The top 7 games average 89% positive over 133 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 16 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
RTS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + RomeFair
- + Outbreak SimFair
- + HorrorFair
- + NavalFair
- + TabletopFair
- + SportsLong shot
- + PuzzleLong shot
- + World War IIPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Open WorldPoor odds
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
Comparable games
Kenshi 2018 · $89M 
Wandering Sword 2023 · $28M 
Driftland: The Magic Revival 2019 · $863k 
Epic Fantasy Battle Simulator 2021 · EA · $128k 
Sengoku Voxel Castle With Zundamon 2024 · EA · $41k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Kenshi | older | $29.99 | 98,451 95% | 3.0M | $89M (exactly $88,576,365) | Lo-Fi Games |
| | Wandering Sword | older | $24.99 | 37,034 94% | 1.1M | $28M (exactly $27,764,390) | The Swordman Studio |
| | Driftland: The Magic Revival | older | $19.99 | 1,439 73% | 43k | $863k (exactly $862,968) | Star Drifters |
| | Epic Fantasy Battle Simulator | · EA older | $9.99 | 426 84% | 13k | $128k (exactly $127,672) | Mutiny Software |
| | Sengoku Voxel Castle With Zundamon | · EA | $12.99 | 106 95% | 3.2k | $41k (exactly $41,308) | KC Project |
 | Daggan | older | $9.99 | 97 79% | 2.9k | $29k (exactly $29,071) | Malerouille |
 | Sword of the Samurai | older | $6.99 | 136 94% | 4.1k | $29k (exactly $28,519) | MicroProse Software |
 | Valand | older | $7.99 | 54 59% | 1.6k | $13k (exactly $12,944) | LOMS Studio |
 | Ruzar - The Dark Stones | older | $17.99 | 21 76% | 630 | $11k (exactly $11,334) | Hammer Glass Studio Inc. |
 | Tactics Greed | older | $9.99 | 24 95% | 720 | $7.2k (exactly $7,193) | Browser Land |
 | Drag'N Dungeon | $9.99 | 11 90% | 330 | $3.3k (exactly $3,297) | Demon Girl | |
 | This sect accepts female disciples only | $8.99 | 2 50% | 60 | $539 (exactly $539) | sln | |
 | Sears: The Sky Frontier | $5.99 | 3 33% | 90 | $539 (exactly $539) | Acoma Games | |
 | 一剑江湖 | $1.99 | 9 44% | 270 | $537 (exactly $537) | 春秋大梦工作室 | |
 | Knight of Noshland | $9.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $300 (exactly $300) | Meow Burrito Games | |
 | Vasterra | $4.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $150 (exactly $150) | Pollo Solo Studio | |
 | ITribe | $14.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | Keka | |
 | Teamfight Royale | $3.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | Festucs Interactive | |
 | Medieval Siege | $9.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | Mind Inside Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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