Should I ship a Survival RTS?
RTS + Survival
Of 126 developers who shipped a Survival RTS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 206 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $7.8k, ×5.2 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.5M, ×2342 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 206 games are announced against 61 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.0k (exactly $1,048) |
|---|---|
| Median | $7.8k (exactly $7,796) |
| Top 25% | $131k (exactly $130,669) |
| Top 5% | $3.5M (exactly $3,507,930) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 126 |
| Released games | 358 |
| Announced | 206 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- RTS, Survival; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Base Building, Simulation
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 85% positive over 107,266 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 7 in 10 of the 80 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 206 games are announced against 61 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
RTS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + RomeFair
- + Outbreak SimFair
- + HorrorFair
- + NavalFair
- + TabletopFair
- + SportsLong shot
- + PuzzleLong shot
- + World War IIPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Open WorldPoor odds
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
Comparable games
Frostpunk 2018 · $103M 
Manor Lords 2024 · EA · $92M 
Kenshi 2018 · $89M 
They Are Billions 2019 · $42M 
Shadow Tactics: Blades of the Shogun 2016 · $37M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Frostpunk | older | $29.99 | 114,376 92% | 3.4M | $103M (exactly $102,904,087) | 11 bit studios |
| | Manor Lords | · EA older | $39.99 | 76,884 84% | 2.3M | $92M (exactly $92,237,735) | Slavic Magic |
| | Kenshi | older | $29.99 | 98,451 95% | 3.0M | $89M (exactly $88,576,365) | Lo-Fi Games |
| | They Are Billions | older | $29.99 | 46,223 85% | 1.4M | $42M (exactly $41,586,833) | Numantian Games |
| | Shadow Tactics: Blades of the Shogun | older | $39.99 | 30,845 96% | 925k | $37M (exactly $37,004,746) | Mimimi Games |
 | Against the Storm | older | $29.99 | 33,271 94% | 998k | $30M (exactly $29,933,919) | Eremite Games |
 | Farthest Frontier | $34.99 | 24,444 86% | 733k | $26M (exactly $25,658,867) | Crate Entertainment | |
 | Foundation | $34.99 | 23,037 86% | 691k | $24M (exactly $24,181,939) | Polymorph Games | |
 | UBOAT | older | $29.99 | 25,568 83% | 767k | $23M (exactly $23,003,530) | Deep Water Studio |
 | Banished | older | $19.99 | 37,895 90% | 1.1M | $23M (exactly $22,725,632) | Shining Rock Software LLC |
 | Going Medieval | $29.99 | 17,032 88% | 511k | $15M (exactly $15,323,690) | Foxy Voxel | |
 | Diplomacy is Not an Option | $29.99 | 10,904 85% | 327k | $9.8M (exactly $9,810,329) | Door 407 | |
 | Age of Darkness: Final Stand | $27.99 | 9,486 74% | 285k | $8.0M (exactly $7,965,394) | PlaySide | |
 | The Wandering Village | $29.99 | 7,734 91% | 232k | $7.0M (exactly $6,958,280) | Stray Fawn Studio | |
 | Cataclismo | $29.99 | 3,899 88% | 117k | $3.5M (exactly $3,507,930) | Digital Sun | |
 | The Crust | $31.99 | 3,502 76% | 105k | $3.4M (exactly $3,360,869) | VEOM Studio | |
 | Becastled | $19.99 | 5,349 81% | 160k | $3.2M (exactly $3,207,795) | Mana Potion Studios | |
 | Desynced | $29.99 | 1,879 79% | 56k | $1.7M (exactly $1,690,536) | Stage Games Inc. |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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