Do I ship it?

GamesRTSRTS + Strategy RPG

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Strategy RPG RTS?

RTS + Strategy RPG

Of 74 developers who shipped a Strategy RPG RTS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 158 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.5k, ×1.7 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $1.6M, ×1092 the market median. Revenue is up 15% on the market; 158 games are announced against 38 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 15% on the market, 158 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RTS + Strategy RPG
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 74
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $12k → $3.9k → $5.4k → $809 → $4.4k → $2.6k → $2.5k (still earning) → $3.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RTS + Strategy RPG: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 74
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $2.5k (exactly $2,514)
Top 25% $17k (exactly $17,391)
Top 5% $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655)
Developers, 2 yr 74
Released games 271
Announced 158
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 15% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

RTS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Strategy RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
RTS, Strategy RPG; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, RPG, Simulation
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 16,558 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $2.5k, 1 in 4 over $17k, 1 in 20 over $1.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 45 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 158 games are announced against 38 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RTS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair12 devs · median $64k · 13 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair16 devs · median $2.6k · 14 announced
  3. + HorrorFair20 devs · median $2.4k · 27 announced
  4. + NavalFair15 devs · median $2.4k · 21 announced
  5. + TabletopFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  6. + SportsLong shot19 devs · median $861 · 9 announced
  7. + PuzzleLong shot48 devs · median $479 · 40 announced
  8. + World War IIPoor odds23 devs · median $105k · 38 announced
  9. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds28 devs · median $64k · 41 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds45 devs · median $35k · 100 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds87 devs · median $31k · 159 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds108 devs · median $30k · 180 announced

All 149 pairs on the RTS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hearts of Iron IV older $49.99 274,901 90% 8.2M $412M (exactly $412,269,030) Paradox Development Studio
Kenshi older $29.99 98,451 95% 3.0M $89M (exactly $88,576,365) Lo-Fi Games
Total War: WARHAMMER older $59.99 32,105 79% 963k $58M (exactly $57,779,368) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (L… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Linux), Feral Interactive (Mac))
The Riftbreaker older $29.99 22,127 90% 664k $20M (exactly $19,907,662) EXOR Studios
Kingdom Heroes 8 older $29.99 12,793 55% 384k $12M (exactly $11,509,862) USERJOY Technology Co.,Ltd.
Ultimate General: Civil War older $29.99 8,331 88% 250k $7.5M (exactly $7,495,401) Game-Labs
Ultimate Admiral: Dreadnoughts older $34.99 6,664 62% 200k $7.0M (exactly $6,995,201) Game-Labs
NEBULOUS: Fleet Command · EA older $29.99 4,074 81% 122k $3.7M (exactly $3,665,378) Eridanus Industries
Dungeons 4 older $49.99 2,392 86% 72k $3.6M (exactly $3,587,282) Realmforge Studios
Master of Command $29.99 3,840 92% 115k $3.5M (exactly $3,454,848) Armchair Interactive
Lessaria: Fantasy Kingdom Sim $24.90 2,938 77% 88k $2.2M (exactly $2,194,686) Rockbee Team
Age of Reforging: The Freelands $29.99 2,291 71% 69k $2.1M (exactly $2,061,213) PersonaeGame Studio
Starminer · EA $29.99 1,818 72% 55k $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655) CoolAndGoodGames
ZeroSpace · EA $39.99 1,161 78% 35k $1.4M (exactly $1,392,852) Starlance Studios, Ironward
The Scouring · EA $24.99 1,136 88% 34k $852k (exactly $851,659) Orc Group
Mandate Order · EA $19.99 1,110 81% 33k $666k (exactly $665,667) Digital Sky
Crown of Greed $19.99 680 60% 20k $408k (exactly $407,796) BLUM Entertainment
BM General Hospital $7.99 1,368 86% 41k $328k (exactly $327,910) zzzgame
Defender of the Crown: The Legend Returns $19.99 216 66% 6.5k $130k (exactly $129,535) Black Tower Basement

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.