Do I ship it?

Games › RTS › RTS + Space Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Space Sim RTS?

RTS + Space Sim

Of 21 developers who shipped a Space Sim RTS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 56 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.5k, ×1.7 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $1.4M, ×946 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 56 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 56 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RTS + Space Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $643k → $1.8k → $9.2k → $9.8k → $2.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RTS + Space Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $2.5k (exactly $2,545)
Top 25% $73k (exactly $73,379)
Top 5% $1.4M (exactly $1,417,028)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 87
Announced 56
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

RTS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Space Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
RTS, Space Sim; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Action, Action RTS
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 5,425 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $2.5k, 1 in 4 over $73k, 1 in 20 over $1.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 56 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RTS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair12 devs · median $64k · 13 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair16 devs · median $2.6k · 14 announced
  3. + HorrorFair20 devs · median $2.4k · 27 announced
  4. + NavalFair15 devs · median $2.4k · 21 announced
  5. + TabletopFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  6. + SportsLong shot19 devs · median $861 · 9 announced
  7. + PuzzleLong shot48 devs · median $479 · 40 announced
  8. + World War IIPoor odds23 devs · median $105k · 38 announced
  9. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds28 devs · median $64k · 41 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds45 devs · median $35k · 100 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds87 devs · median $31k · 159 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds108 devs · median $30k · 180 announced

All 149 pairs on the RTS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Dyson Sphere Program 2021 · EA · $50M Sins of a Solar Empire®: Rebellion 2012 · $6.1M Planetbase 2015 · $4.3M Star Trek: Infinite 2023 · $2.7M Starminer 2026 · EA · $1.6M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dyson Sphere Program · EA older $19.99 83,523 97% 2.5M $50M (exactly $50,088,743) Youthcat Studio
Sins of a Solar Empire®: Rebellion older $19.99 10,243 93% 307k $6.1M (exactly $6,142,727) Ironclad Games Corporation, Stardock En… (Ironclad Games Corporation, Stardock Entertainment)
Planetbase older $14.99 9,558 79% 287k $4.3M (exactly $4,298,233) Madruga Works
Star Trek: Infinite older $29.99 3,030 41% 91k $2.7M (exactly $2,726,091) Nimble Giant Entertainment
Starminer · EA $29.99 1,818 72% 55k $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655) CoolAndGoodGames
ERA ONE · EA $29.99 1,575 86% 47k $1.4M (exactly $1,417,028) Team Complex LTD
Executive Assault 2 older $24.99 1,604 82% 48k $1.2M (exactly $1,202,519) Hesketh Studios Ltd
Battlestar Galactica: Scattered Hopes $24.99 1,039 76% 31k $779k (exactly $778,938) Alt Shift
BattleGroupVR older $24.99 858 92% 26k $643k (exactly $643,243) SpaceOwl Games
Space Reign $19.99 444 72% 13k $266k (exactly $266,267) Propulsive Games
BattleGroupVR2 · EA $24.99 209 85% 6.3k $157k (exactly $156,687) SpaceOwl Games
Outlive 25 $11.99 204 93% 6.1k $73k (exactly $73,379) Continuum Entertainment
WarOS · EA $19.99 29 72% 870 $17k (exactly $17,391) The7 Studio
Spacefleet: Heat Death · EA $11.99 36 86% 1.1k $13k (exactly $12,949) Spacezero Interactive
Deep Dark Forest $7.99 41 87% 1.2k $9.8k (exactly $9,828) pixiangames
Stellar outpost commander $8.99 30 83% 900 $8.1k (exactly $8,091) Kinderril

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.