Do I ship it?

Games › RTS › RTS + Simulation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Simulation RTS?

RTS + Simulation

Of 321 developers who shipped a Simulation RTS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 506 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.3k, ×2.9 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $1.4M, ×964 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 506 games are announced against 173 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 506 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RTS + Simulation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 321
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $12k → $11k → $6.3k → $9.2k → $5.3k → $13k → $1.9k (still earning) → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RTS + Simulation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 321
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $4.3k (exactly $4,341)
Top 25% $70k (exactly $70,153)
Top 5% $1.4M (exactly $1,443,836)
Developers, 2 yr 321
Released games 1,125
Announced 506
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

RTS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
RTS, Simulation; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Management, Base Building
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 113,361 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $4.3k, 1 in 4 over $70k, 1 in 20 over $1.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 188 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 506 games are announced against 173 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RTS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair12 devs · median $64k · 13 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair16 devs · median $2.6k · 14 announced
  3. + HorrorFair20 devs · median $2.4k · 27 announced
  4. + NavalFair15 devs · median $2.4k · 21 announced
  5. + TabletopFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  6. + SportsLong shot19 devs · median $861 · 9 announced
  7. + PuzzleLong shot48 devs · median $479 · 40 announced
  8. + World War IIPoor odds23 devs · median $105k · 38 announced
  9. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds28 devs · median $64k · 41 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds45 devs · median $35k · 100 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds87 devs · median $31k · 159 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds108 devs · median $30k · 180 announced

All 149 pairs on the RTS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Hearts of Iron IV 2016 · $412M Total War: WARHAMMER II 2017 · $153M Crusader Kings III 2020 · $142M Frostpunk 2018 · $103M Manor Lords 2024 · EA · $92M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hearts of Iron IV older $49.99 274,901 90% 8.2M $412M (exactly $412,269,030) Paradox Development Studio
Total War: WARHAMMER II older $59.99 85,134 92% 2.6M $153M (exactly $153,215,660) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Crusader Kings III older $49.99 94,615 90% 2.8M $142M (exactly $141,894,116) Paradox Development Studio
Frostpunk older $29.99 114,376 92% 3.4M $103M (exactly $102,904,087) 11 bit studios
Manor Lords · EA older $39.99 76,884 84% 2.3M $92M (exactly $92,237,735) Slavic Magic
Kenshi older $29.99 98,451 95% 3.0M $89M (exactly $88,576,365) Lo-Fi Games
Total War: THREE KINGDOMS older $39.99 63,110 82% 1.9M $76M (exactly $75,713,067) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Total War: WARHAMMER older $59.99 32,105 79% 963k $58M (exactly $57,779,368) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (L… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Linux), Feral Interactive (Mac))
Northgard: Definitive Edition older $34.99 54,478 85% 1.6M $57M (exactly $57,185,557) Shiro Games
Anno 1800 older $59.99 29,854 81% 896k $54M (exactly $53,728,244) Ubisoft Mainz
Foundation $34.99 23,037 86% 691k $24M (exactly $24,181,939) Polymorph Games
Anno 117: Pax Romana $59.99 12,150 69% 365k $22M (exactly $21,866,355) Ubisoft Mainz
Going Medieval $29.99 17,032 88% 511k $15M (exactly $15,323,690) Foxy Voxel
Diplomacy is Not an Option $29.99 10,904 85% 327k $9.8M (exactly $9,810,329) Door 407
Sea Power : Naval Combat in the Missile Age · EA $49.99 6,109 90% 183k $9.2M (exactly $9,161,667) Triassic Games
Mechabellum $14.99 17,856 84% 536k $8.0M (exactly $8,029,843) Game River
The Wandering Village $29.99 7,734 91% 232k $7.0M (exactly $6,958,280) Stray Fawn Studio
Stronghold Crusader: Definitive Edition $19.99 10,627 92% 319k $6.4M (exactly $6,373,012) Firefly Studios
ROMANCE OF THE THREE KINGDOMS 8 REMAKE $59.99 3,118 49% 94k $5.6M (exactly $5,611,465) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Pioneers of Pagonia $34.99 4,794 81% 144k $5.0M (exactly $5,032,262) Envision Entertainment

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.