Do I ship it?

Games › RTS › RTS + Roguelite

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Roguelite RTS?

RTS + Roguelite

Of 139 developers who shipped a Roguelite RTS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 201 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.0k, ×1.3 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $800k, ×537 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 201 games are announced against 77 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 201 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RTS + Roguelite
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 139
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $3.1k → $6.1k → $4.6k → $1.3k → $6.1k → $2.0k (still earning) → $897 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RTS + Roguelite: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 139
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $2.0k (exactly $1,977)
Top 25% $21k (exactly $21,333)
Top 5% $805k (exactly $804,730)
Developers, 2 yr 139
Released games 249
Announced 201
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.49

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

RTS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Roguelite
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
RTS, Roguelite; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Roguelike, Tower Defense
Price point
$7.49 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.49.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 27,765 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $2.0k, 1 in 4 over $21k, 1 in 20 over $800k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 68 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 201 games are announced against 77 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RTS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair12 devs · median $64k · 13 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair16 devs · median $2.6k · 14 announced
  3. + HorrorFair20 devs · median $2.4k · 27 announced
  4. + NavalFair15 devs · median $2.4k · 21 announced
  5. + TabletopFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  6. + SportsLong shot19 devs · median $861 · 9 announced
  7. + PuzzleLong shot48 devs · median $479 · 40 announced
  8. + World War IIPoor odds23 devs · median $105k · 38 announced
  9. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds28 devs · median $64k · 41 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds45 devs · median $35k · 100 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds87 devs · median $31k · 159 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds108 devs · median $30k · 180 announced

All 149 pairs on the RTS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Lobotomy Corporation | Monster Management Simulation 2018 · $39M Against the Storm 2023 · $30M Homeworld 3 2024 · $9.8M Bad North: Jotunn Edition 2018 · $5.6M The King is Watching 2025 · $4.0M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Lobotomy Corporation | Monster Management Simulation older $24.99 52,522 94% 1.6M $39M (exactly $39,375,743) ProjectMoon
Against the Storm older $29.99 33,271 94% 998k $30M (exactly $29,933,919) Eremite Games
Homeworld 3 older $59.99 5,436 38% 163k $9.8M (exactly $9,783,169) Blackbird Interactive
Bad North: Jotunn Edition older $14.99 12,344 93% 370k $5.6M (exactly $5,551,097) Plausible Concept, Oskar Stålberg
The King is Watching $14.99 9,006 88% 270k $4.0M (exactly $4,049,998) Hypnohead
Tower Dominion $17.49 5,117 85% 154k $2.7M (exactly $2,684,890) Parallel 45 Games
Cartel Tycoon older $29.99 2,822 75% 85k $2.5M (exactly $2,538,953) Moon Moose
Crying Suns older $24.99 3,149 85% 94k $2.4M (exactly $2,360,805) Alt Shift
Nordhold $19.99 2,875 87% 86k $1.7M (exactly $1,724,137) StunForge
Gladiator Guild Manager older $14.99 3,808 80% 114k $1.7M (exactly $1,712,458) Entertainment Forge
Tabletop Tavern $19.99 2,049 89% 61k $1.2M (exactly $1,228,785) TJ
EverSiege: Untold Ages $19.99 1,906 68% 57k $1.1M (exactly $1,143,028) Tindalos Interactive
Company of Heroes 3: Final Stand $29.99 1,015 49% 30k $913k (exactly $913,196) Relic Entertainment
Demon Lord: Just a Block $12.99 2,065 96% 62k $805k (exactly $804,730) YuWave
Battlestar Galactica: Scattered Hopes $24.99 1,039 76% 31k $779k (exactly $778,938) Alt Shift
Border Pioneer $14.99 1,675 86% 50k $753k (exactly $753,248) Yahzj Games
Rogue Command $19.99 1,018 89% 31k $610k (exactly $610,495) feneq

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.