Do I ship it?

Games › RTS › RTS + Real Time Tactics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Real Time Tactics RTS?

RTS + Real Time Tactics

Of 372 developers who shipped a Real Time Tactics RTS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 684 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.7k, ×1.1 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $770k, ×520 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 684 games are announced against 184 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 684 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RTS + Real Time Tactics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 372
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.1k → $4.5k → $2.7k → $3.9k → $980 → $2.5k → $1.3k (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RTS + Real Time Tactics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 372
Bottom 30% $270 (exactly $270)
Median $1.7k (exactly $1,678)
Top 25% $17k (exactly $17,391)
Top 5% $779k (exactly $778,938)
Developers, 2 yr 372
Released games 1,173
Announced 684
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

RTS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Real Time Tactics
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
RTS, Real Time Tactics; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Tactical, Simulation
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 106,853 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $1.7k, 1 in 4 over $17k, 1 in 20 over $770k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 8 in 10 of the 234 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 684 games are announced against 184 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RTS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair12 devs · median $64k · 13 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair16 devs · median $2.6k · 14 announced
  3. + HorrorFair20 devs · median $2.4k · 27 announced
  4. + NavalFair15 devs · median $2.4k · 21 announced
  5. + TabletopFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  6. + SportsLong shot19 devs · median $861 · 9 announced
  7. + PuzzleLong shot48 devs · median $479 · 40 announced
  8. + World War IIPoor odds23 devs · median $105k · 38 announced
  9. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds28 devs · median $64k · 41 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds45 devs · median $35k · 100 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds87 devs · median $31k · 159 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds108 devs · median $30k · 180 announced

All 149 pairs on the RTS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Total War: WARHAMMER III 2022 · $189M Total War: WARHAMMER II 2017 · $153M Kenshi 2018 · $89M Total War: THREE KINGDOMS 2019 · $76M Total War: WARHAMMER 2016 · $58M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Total War: WARHAMMER III older $59.99 104,822 71% 3.1M $189M (exactly $188,648,153) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive
Total War: WARHAMMER II older $59.99 85,134 92% 2.6M $153M (exactly $153,215,660) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Kenshi older $29.99 98,451 95% 3.0M $89M (exactly $88,576,365) Lo-Fi Games
Total War: THREE KINGDOMS older $39.99 63,110 82% 1.9M $76M (exactly $75,713,067) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Total War: WARHAMMER older $59.99 32,105 79% 963k $58M (exactly $57,779,368) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (L… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Linux), Feral Interactive (Mac))
Total War: ROME II - Emperor Edition older $29.99 54,547 87% 1.6M $49M (exactly $49,075,936) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive
Company of Heroes 3 older $59.99 24,516 59% 735k $44M (exactly $44,121,445) Relic Entertainment
Broken Arrow $49.99 25,924 55% 778k $39M (exactly $38,878,223) Steel Balalaika
Shadow Tactics: Blades of the Shogun older $39.99 30,845 96% 925k $37M (exactly $37,004,746) Mimimi Games
Call to Arms - Gates of Hell: Ostfront older $34.99 32,183 85% 965k $34M (exactly $33,782,495) Barbedwire Studios, Digitalmindsoft
Going Medieval $29.99 17,032 88% 511k $15M (exactly $15,323,690) Foxy Voxel
Door Kickers 2: Task Force North $24.99 12,324 96% 370k $9.2M (exactly $9,239,303) KillHouse Games
Sea Power : Naval Combat in the Missile Age · EA $49.99 6,109 90% 183k $9.2M (exactly $9,161,667) Triassic Games
Mechabellum $14.99 17,856 84% 536k $8.0M (exactly $8,029,843) Game River
Stronghold Crusader: Definitive Edition $19.99 10,627 92% 319k $6.4M (exactly $6,373,012) Firefly Studios
The King is Watching $14.99 9,006 88% 270k $4.0M (exactly $4,049,998) Hypnohead
Master of Command $29.99 3,840 92% 115k $3.5M (exactly $3,454,848) Armchair Interactive
Commandos: Origins $49.99 1,844 79% 55k $2.8M (exactly $2,765,447) Claymore Game Studios
Age of Reforging: The Freelands $29.99 2,291 71% 69k $2.1M (exactly $2,061,213) PersonaeGame Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.