Should I ship a Real-Time RTS?
RTS + Real-Time
Of 21 developers who shipped a Real-Time RTS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 40 more are announced, ×5.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $22k, ×14 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $14k; 1 in 20 cleared $9.1M, ×6116 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 40 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $13k (exactly $13,486) |
|---|---|
| Median | $22k (exactly $21,589) |
| Top 25% | $85k (exactly $84,544) |
| Top 5% | $9.2M (exactly $9,161,667) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 21 |
| Released games | 191 |
| Announced | 40 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $14.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 40% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- RTS, Real-Time; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Simulation, Base Building
- Price point
- $14.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Realistic, 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.
The top 10 games average 85% positive over 18,187 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $14k. 5 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 40 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.0 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
RTS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + RomeFair
- + Outbreak SimFair
- + HorrorFair
- + NavalFair
- + TabletopFair
- + SportsLong shot
- + PuzzleLong shot
- + World War IIPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Open WorldPoor odds
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
Comparable games
Age of Empires II: Definitive Edition 2019 · $167M 
Age of Empires II (Retired) 2013 · $51M 
Company of Heroes 2 2013 · $41M 
Age of Mythology: Extended Edition 2014 · $29M 
Wargame: Red Dragon 2014 · $14M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Age of Empires II: Definitive Edition | older | $34.99 | 158,931 94% | 4.8M | $167M (exactly $166,829,871) | World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, Captur… (World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, CaptureAge, Tantalus Media, Wicked Witch, Feral Interactive) |
| | Age of Empires II (Retired) | older | $19.99 | 84,818 95% | 2.5M | $51M (exactly $50,865,355) | Skybox Labs, Hidden Path Entertainment,… (Skybox Labs, Hidden Path Entertainment, Ensemble Studios, Forgotten Empires) |
| | Company of Heroes 2 | older | $19.99 | 68,909 80% | 2.1M | $41M (exactly $41,324,727) | Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive… (Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux)) |
| | Age of Mythology: Extended Edition | older | $29.99 | 31,869 93% | 956k | $29M (exactly $28,672,539) | SkyBox Labs, Ensemble Studios, Forgotte… (SkyBox Labs, Ensemble Studios, Forgotten Empires) |
| | Wargame: Red Dragon | older | $29.99 | 15,758 88% | 473k | $14M (exactly $14,177,473) | Eugen Systems |
 | Warhammer 40,000: Dawn of War II - Anniversary Edition (Classic) | older | $49.99 | 8,084 85% | 243k | $12M (exactly $12,123,575) | Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive… (Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive (Mac/Linux)) |
 | Tempest Rising | $39.99 | 9,811 87% | 294k | $12M (exactly $11,770,257) | Slipgate Ironworks™ | |
 | Homeworld: Deserts of Kharak | older | $49.99 | 7,800 79% | 234k | $12M (exactly $11,697,660) | Blackbird Interactive |
 | Sins of a Solar Empire II | older | $49.99 | 7,147 83% | 214k | $11M (exactly $10,718,356) | Ironclad Games Corporation, Stardock En… (Ironclad Games Corporation, Stardock Entertainment) |
 | Iron Harvest | older | $29.99 | 11,682 74% | 350k | $11M (exactly $10,510,295) | KING Art |
 | Sea Power : Naval Combat in the Missile Age | · EA | $49.99 | 6,109 90% | 183k | $9.2M (exactly $9,161,667) | Triassic Games |
 | Task Force Admiral - Vol.1: American Carrier Battles | · EA | $39.99 | 633 87% | 19k | $759k (exactly $759,410) | Drydock Dreams Games |
 | Builders of Greece | $19.99 | 537 54% | 16k | $322k (exactly $322,039) | BLUM Entertainment, Strategy Labs | |
 | Builders of Egypt | $19.99 | 461 31% | 14k | $276k (exactly $276,462) | Strategy Labs | |
 | Warhammer: Mark of Chaos - Gold Edition (Classic) | $14.99 | 188 96% | 5.6k | $85k (exactly $84,544) | Black Hole Entertainment | |
 | Final Outpost: Definitive Edition | $9.99 | 208 76% | 6.2k | $62k (exactly $62,338) | Exabyte Games | |
 | Moduwar | · EA | $14.99 | 134 88% | 4.0k | $60k (exactly $60,260) | Biohex Studios |
 | WARSHIFT 2 | $19.99 | 54 70% | 1.6k | $32k (exactly $32,384) | Cyril Megem | |
 | Battlefall: State of Conflict | · EA | $19.99 | 52 63% | 1.6k | $31k (exactly $31,184) | Kyoto Video Game Concern |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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