Do I ship it?

GamesRPGRPG + Walking Simulator

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Walking Simulator RPG?

RPG + Walking Simulator

Of 131 developers who shipped a Walking Simulator RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 202 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $750, ×1.2 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $150k, ×250 the market median. Revenue is up 60% on the market; 202 games are announced against 72 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 60% on the market, 202 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RPG + Walking Simulator
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 131
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $1.5k → $1.5k → $2.1k → $1.2k → $960 → $748 (still earning) → $330 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RPG + Walking Simulator: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 131
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $748 (exactly $748)
Top 25% $5.4k (exactly $5,415)
Top 5% $157k (exactly $157,053)
Developers, 2 yr 131
Released games 439
Announced 202
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 60% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Walking Simulator
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
RPG, Walking Simulator; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Story Rich, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 71% positive over 10,285 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $750, 1 in 4 over $5.4k, 1 in 20 over $150k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 90 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 202 games are announced against 72 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced
  2. + IdlerFair357 devs · median $2.2k · 471 announced
  3. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  4. + SportsFair113 devs · median $1.5k · 124 announced
  5. + Combat RacingFair22 devs · median $629 · 28 announced
  6. + Split ScreenFair28 devs · median $450 · 31 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair41 devs · median $449 · 43 announced
  8. + SamuraiPoor odds14 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  11. + MinigamesPoor odds19 devs · median $40k · 34 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $28k · 19 announced

All 262 pairs on the RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim Special Edition older $39.99 219,271 94% 6.6M $263M (exactly $263,059,419) Bethesda Game Studios
The Isle · EA older $19.99 111,397 80% 3.3M $67M (exactly $66,804,781) Afterthought LLC
To the Moon older $9.99 69,549 95% 2.1M $21M (exactly $20,843,835) Freebird Games
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim VR older $59.99 9,129 74% 274k $16M (exactly $16,429,461) Bethesda Game Studios
Echoes of Aincrad $69.99 4,108 47% 123k $8.6M (exactly $8,625,568) Game Studio Inc.
The Forgotten City older $24.99 11,159 96% 335k $8.4M (exactly $8,365,902) Modern Storyteller
Cloudpunk older $19.99 13,788 87% 414k $8.3M (exactly $8,268,664) ION LANDS
Murdered: Soul Suspect older $19.99 12,051 87% 362k $7.2M (exactly $7,226,985) Airtight Games
Call of Cthulhu® older $19.99 10,962 79% 329k $6.6M (exactly $6,573,911) Cyanide Studio
Cube World older $19.99 9,885 42% 297k $5.9M (exactly $5,928,034) Picroma
The Scourge | Tai Ương $19.99 1,192 93% 36k $715k (exactly $714,842) Rare Reversee, Beaztek
Quadrober Simulator $29.99 684 79% 21k $615k (exactly $615,395) PropilGames
Maid Cafe on Electric Street $18.99 595 82% 18k $339k (exactly $338,972) Adventurer's Tavern
沙雕之路 $10.00 1,039 96% 31k $312k (exactly $311,700) 馆叔
Dread Flats $5.99 1,453 83% 44k $261k (exactly $261,104) Ghostcase
Goblin Dungeons $17.99 291 83% 8.7k $157k (exactly $157,053) Loolust
Dread Neighbor $5.99 420 81% 13k $75k (exactly $75,474) Ghostcase
Miami Paradise 2 $14.99 131 94% 3.9k $59k (exactly $58,911) Entropy Digital Entertainment
Gnomes and Knights $4.99 372 77% 11k $56k (exactly $55,688) Terletski Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.