Do I ship it?

GamesRPGRPG + Turn-Based Tactics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Turn-Based Tactics RPG?

RPG + Turn-Based Tactics

Of 856 developers who shipped a Turn-Based Tactics RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,522 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×3.8 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $690k, ×1099 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 1,522 games are announced against 491 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 1,522 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RPG + Turn-Based Tactics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 856
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.2k → $11k → $3.6k → $3.5k → $3.0k → $3.8k → $1.4k (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RPG + Turn-Based Tactics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 856
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,399)
Top 25% $33k (exactly $33,173)
Top 5% $690k (exactly $690,474)
Developers, 2 yr 856
Released games 2,502
Announced 1,522
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
RPG, Turn-Based Tactics; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy, Turn-Based Combat
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 188,047 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $33k, 1 in 20 over $690k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 461 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,522 games are announced against 491 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced
  2. + IdlerFair357 devs · median $2.2k · 471 announced
  3. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  4. + SportsFair113 devs · median $1.5k · 124 announced
  5. + Combat RacingFair22 devs · median $629 · 28 announced
  6. + Split ScreenFair28 devs · median $450 · 31 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair41 devs · median $449 · 43 announced
  8. + SamuraiPoor odds14 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  11. + MinigamesPoor odds19 devs · median $40k · 34 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $28k · 19 announced

All 262 pairs on the RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dragon Age™: The Veilguard $59.99 41,393 67% 1.2M $74M (exactly $74,494,982) BioWare
Metaphor: ReFantazio $69.99 25,224 89% 757k $53M (exactly $52,962,833) ATLUS
XCOM® 2 older $19.99 79,998 84% 2.4M $48M (exactly $47,974,801) Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac),… (Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Mewgenics $29.99 49,996 89% 1.5M $45M (exactly $44,981,401) Edmund McMillen, Tyler Glaiel
Temtem older $44.99 31,263 82% 938k $42M (exactly $42,195,671) Crema
Marvel's Midnight Suns older $59.99 17,060 82% 512k $31M (exactly $30,702,882) Firaxis Games
STAR WARS Zero Company™ $49.99 19,521 82% 586k $29M (exactly $29,275,644) Bit Reactor
Darkest Dungeon® II older $39.99 24,249 74% 727k $29M (exactly $29,091,525) Red Hook Studios
Wandering Sword older $24.99 37,034 94% 1.1M $28M (exactly $27,764,390) The Swordman Studio
BATTLETECH older $39.99 23,024 84% 691k $28M (exactly $27,621,893) Harebrained Schemes
Heroes of Might and Magic: Olden Era · EA $39.99 19,251 86% 578k $23M (exactly $23,095,425) Unfrozen
MENACE · EA $39.99 12,281 90% 368k $15M (exactly $14,733,516) Overhype Studios
Sora no Kiseki the 1st $59.99 5,205 97% 156k $9.4M (exactly $9,367,438) Nihon Falcom
FINAL FANTASY TACTICS - The Ivalice Chronicles $49.99 5,673 89% 170k $8.5M (exactly $8,507,798) Square Enix
Trails in the Sky 1st Chapter $59.99 4,650 95% 140k $8.4M (exactly $8,368,605) Nihon Falcom
Xenonauts 2 $39.99 4,853 81% 146k $5.8M (exactly $5,822,144) Goldhawk Interactive

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.