Do I ship it?

GamesRPGRPG + Trivia

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Trivia RPG?

RPG + Trivia

Only 18 developers shipped a Trivia RPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, 探岛海龟汤, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 18 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $390 in the last 2 years and $360 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 15 developers shipped in the last year and 18 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 18 announced, ×1.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RPG + Trivia
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $359 → $4.4k → $386 (still earning) → $210 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RPG + Trivia: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $386 (exactly $386)
Top 25% $2.9k (exactly $2,876)
Top 5% $33k (exactly $32,967)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 55
Announced 18
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 400% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Trivia
effort 1 / 10 · high · question bank and scoring

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
RPG, Trivia; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Puzzle, Adventure, Strategy
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Cute, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 439 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $390, 1 in 4 over $2.8k, 1 in 20 over $32k.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 18 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced
  2. + IdlerFair357 devs · median $2.2k · 471 announced
  3. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  4. + SportsFair113 devs · median $1.5k · 124 announced
  5. + Combat RacingFair22 devs · median $629 · 28 announced
  6. + Split ScreenFair28 devs · median $450 · 31 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair41 devs · median $449 · 43 announced
  8. + SamuraiPoor odds14 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  11. + MinigamesPoor odds19 devs · median $40k · 34 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $28k · 19 announced

All 262 pairs on the RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
MEMOLOGY: GOYDA older $1.99 1,847 94% 55k $110k (exactly $110,266) hannibalnotdead, Gamesforfarm
你已经猜到结局了吗 older $7.99 388 92% 12k $93k (exactly $93,004) 橘音
探岛海龟汤 $9.99 110 71% 3.3k $33k (exactly $32,967) 探岛工作室
The Angel's Devil Tail - One More Question 2 $9.99 70 91% 2.1k $21k (exactly $20,979) 橘音
QSVT: ¡Que se vayan todos! $6.99 75 88% 2.3k $16k (exactly $15,728) Sendero tecnológico
Medieval Fantasy Survival Simulator older $1.99 252 96% 7.6k $15k (exactly $15,044) Randumb Studios
MEMOLOGY: ITALIAN BRAINROT $0.99 148 91% 4.4k $4.4k (exactly $4,396) hannibalnotdead, Gamesforfarm
Japanese Romaji Adventure older $9.99 10 60% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) JBO Media
One More Question $7.99 12 100% 360 $2.9k (exactly $2,876) OrangeSounds
Cute Girl older $0.99 84 75% 2.5k $2.5k (exactly $2,495) Cute Girl corp
News Roll · EA $9.99 2 100% 60 $599 (exactly $599) Koma
Tree of Knowledge $2.99 6 100% 180 $538 (exactly $538) Dreaming of Pixels
Algaza-ha: Quest Giver $6.99 2 100% 60 $419 (exactly $419) Algaza-ha
МЕМАСИКИ ПО КЛАССИКЕ $0.99 13 100% 390 $386 (exactly $386) Reanim Games
ISLAND OF VALKYRIES $11.99 1 0% 30 $360 (exactly $360) SUCCUBUS ZONE

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.