Do I ship it?

GamesRPGRPG + Transhumanism

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Transhumanist RPG?

RPG + Transhumanism

Of 32 developers who shipped a Transhumanist RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 69 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $5.3M, ×8591 the market median. Revenue is up 170% on the market; 69 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 170% on the market, 69 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RPG + Transhumanism
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 32
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $21k → $1.0k → $13k → $802 → $599 → $2.1k → $300 (still earning) → $9.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RPG + Transhumanism: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 32
Bottom 30% $267 (exactly $267)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $5.4k (exactly $5,415)
Top 5% $5.4M (exactly $5,394,841)
Developers, 2 yr 32
Released games 82
Announced 69
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 170% on the market, supply 120% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Transhumanism
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
RPG; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Choices Matter, Adventure, CRPG
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, Lore-Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 20,203 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $600, 1 in 4 over $5.4k, 1 in 20 over $5.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 9 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 69 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced
  2. + IdlerFair357 devs · median $2.2k · 471 announced
  3. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  4. + SportsFair113 devs · median $1.5k · 124 announced
  5. + Combat RacingFair22 devs · median $629 · 28 announced
  6. + Split ScreenFair28 devs · median $450 · 31 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair41 devs · median $449 · 43 announced
  8. + SamuraiPoor odds14 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  11. + MinigamesPoor odds19 devs · median $40k · 34 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $28k · 19 announced

All 262 pairs on the RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Deus Ex: Mankind Divided older $29.99 30,709 77% 921k $28M (exactly $27,628,887) Eidos Montreal, Feral Interactive (Linu… (Eidos Montreal, Feral Interactive (Linux/Mac))
Deus Ex: Human Revolution - Director's Cut older $19.99 25,392 91% 762k $15M (exactly $15,227,582) Eidos Montreal
Caves of Qud $29.99 11,892 94% 357k $11M (exactly $10,699,232) Freehold Games
Quasimorph $24.99 7,196 82% 216k $5.4M (exactly $5,394,841) Magnum Scriptum
Phoenix Point older $24.99 5,375 73% 161k $4.0M (exactly $4,029,637) Snapshot Games Inc.
Binary Domain older $14.99 3,567 86% 107k $1.6M (exactly $1,604,080) Devil's Details
Deus Ex: The Fall older $9.99 3,762 37% 113k $1.1M (exactly $1,127,471) ·
Deus Ex: Invisible War older $6.99 2,199 57% 66k $461k (exactly $461,130) Ion Storm
Lightracer Spark older $12.99 970 83% 29k $378k (exactly $378,009) Smartmelon Games
Deadeye Deepfake Simulacrum $12.99 839 98% 25k $327k (exactly $326,958) nodayshalleraseyou
Utawarerumono: ZAN 2 $39.99 88 82% 2.6k $106k (exactly $105,574) AQUAPLUS
Songs of Rats $14.99 50 78% 1.5k $22k (exactly $22,485) Tesseract Games
how to kill a fly [ H2KAF ] $9.99 71 97% 2.1k $21k (exactly $21,279) Radtel Collective
Holonoptic $19.95 16 93% 480 $9.6k (exactly $9,576) Glazial
Imago Season $9.50 19 89% 570 $5.4k (exactly $5,415) Lunar Finch
New Earth Saga of the New Gods $9.99 18 55% 540 $5.4k (exactly $5,395) FPCGameSoftware
Posthuman: Guardians vs PSION $6.99 14 42% 420 $2.9k (exactly $2,936) Choice of Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.