Do I ship it?

GamesRPGRPG + Traditional Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Traditional Roguelike RPG?

RPG + Traditional Roguelike

Of 135 developers who shipped a Traditional Roguelike RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 170 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×1.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $200k, ×333 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 170 games are announced against 93 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 170 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RPG + Traditional Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 135
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $41k → $599 → $5.4k → $2.2k → $1.1k → $2.3k → $2.0k (still earning) → $449 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RPG + Traditional Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 135
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $1.0k (exactly $1,015)
Top 25% $6.7k (exactly $6,712)
Top 5% $209k (exactly $208,986)
Developers, 2 yr 135
Released games 292
Announced 170
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 120% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Traditional Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
RPG, Traditional Roguelike; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, Strategy, Dungeon Crawler
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 24,906 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $1.0k, 1 in 4 over $6.7k, 1 in 20 over $200k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 7 in 10 of the 47 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 170 games are announced against 93 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced
  2. + IdlerFair357 devs · median $2.2k · 471 announced
  3. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  4. + SportsFair113 devs · median $1.5k · 124 announced
  5. + Combat RacingFair22 devs · median $629 · 28 announced
  6. + Split ScreenFair28 devs · median $450 · 31 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair41 devs · median $449 · 43 announced
  8. + SamuraiPoor odds14 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  11. + MinigamesPoor odds19 devs · median $40k · 34 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $28k · 19 announced

All 262 pairs on the RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Caves of Qud $29.99 11,892 94% 357k $11M (exactly $10,699,232) Freehold Games
Elin · EA $19.99 8,406 93% 252k $5.0M (exactly $5,041,078) Lafrontier
Touhou Genso Wanderer -Reloaded- older $34.99 1,734 93% 52k $1.8M (exactly $1,820,180) AQUASTYLE
Soulash 2 · EA older $18.99 2,382 85% 71k $1.4M (exactly $1,357,025) Artur Smiarowski
Jupiter Hell older $24.99 1,795 91% 54k $1.3M (exactly $1,345,712) ChaosForge
Tales of Maj'Eyal older $6.99 6,320 94% 190k $1.3M (exactly $1,325,304) Netcore Games
ZED ZONE · EA older $11.99 3,506 81% 105k $1.3M (exactly $1,261,108) Leven Liu
Cogmind · EA older $24.99 1,560 95% 47k $1.2M (exactly $1,169,532) Grid Sage Games
Path of Achra older $9.99 3,166 98% 95k $949k (exactly $948,850) Ulfsire
Dungeons of Dredmor older $7.99 3,702 94% 111k $887k (exactly $887,369) Gaslamp Games, Inc.
Lost in Random: The Eternal Die $24.99 764 84% 23k $573k (exactly $572,771) Stormteller Games
Shiren the Wanderer: The Mystery Dungeon of Serpentcoil Island $39.99 470 85% 14k $564k (exactly $563,859) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
Rift Wizard 2 $19.99 744 91% 22k $446k (exactly $446,177) Dylan White
Approaching Infinity $17.99 723 95% 22k $390k (exactly $390,203) IBOL
House of Necrosis $11.99 581 94% 17k $209k (exactly $208,986) Warkus
Rift Wizard 3 · EA $19.99 308 88% 9.2k $185k (exactly $184,708) Dylan White, Khoops, Jacob Martinez
Kādomon: Hyper Auto Battlers $9.99 543 65% 16k $163k (exactly $162,737) Dino Rocket
Trials Survivors · EA $9.99 475 85% 14k $142k (exactly $142,358) Angry wisp

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.